Bellatrix Exploration Ltd (Canada) BXEFF

AECO basis vs. Midwest improves substantially

[dinkdestroyer]

.....about 60 cents since Empress is back to full capacity. A 3 day maintenance at East Gate will affect basis adversely in mid-September.......however some Alberta gas will be shut in at that time for another maintenance event so basis may not be as affected as in the Empress maintenance event. Canadian exports to Midwest are up quite substantially since Empress disruption ended.

[righand2]

The US natural gas storage report showed a much lower than average build today, coming in at only 11 bcf, compared to an average build of 64 bcf. So demand over supply is obviously exceeding historical averages, and that is very bullish going forward. If we do get a spike in gas prices this winter, BXE needs to be very aggressive and lock in profits for as much as they can, for as long as they can

[dinkdestroyer]

Companies have been very restrained in drilling new wells. The inventory of DUCs in the Marcellus is dropping quite fast as companies bring them on faster than new drilling replaces same. This most likely will continue for the rest of the year as gas is still not profitable at these prices. Most companies have cut capital spending to the bone and are maintaining production as best they can through

[righand2]

Yes, if all of the pieces fall in place, the share price should respond very well. And that is why I have been accumulating a large position as it trades below a Canuck Buck. If they ever get around to disposing of a big enough asset to kill the debt monster, the market should react positively.

[TouchDown12]

Good to hear you are buying Righand2... I dipped in at .98 this AM as well... this summer/fall NG cycle reminds me a little of I think Fall '09 or '10 when things were drifting in August BUT got going in October-November and there were a lot of up 50% stocks in that run... I sure enjoyed the run up in both Celtic and Crew that fall...not sure it will repeat this year to that degree but it

[ytriguy]

I agree. It's been proven over and over again that the time to buy a stock is when nobody appears to want it. Bellatrix is a great example. Personally, I'm buying here to average down my $1.12 purchase price to about $1.06. This gas and oil market won't stay as depressed as it is forever. The tide is going to turn and this seems like an excellent opportunity to get in at bargain