Bellatrix Exploration Ltd (Canada) BXEFF

price to book

[puma1]

this is trading now at about 12% of the book value so they are basically valuing the assets at zero which does not make sense given their costing structure. ..................... we can presumably expect an asset write down of a large size for the year end given this price to book............. nonetheless, the debt covenants are all income /ebitda tested and there does not appear to be any tangible net worth test. if there is a write down that hit to equity does not allow for a call of the notes or restrict assess to other debt.............. but the market is pricing this as though the debt will get called or 50% of the total $1.4 billion of assets will be written down at year end....................................................... I suspect we are oversold !!!!!!!!!!

[puma1]

josef schachter talks about the book value of this stock a lot as well. he has it as a top pick in his November picks - $7 target based on their assumptions that it will be close to $1 a share cash flow.

[puma1]

Globe says Bellatrix Exploration cut to "underperform"............................................................................... 2017-12-15 07:15 ET - In the News..........................................................................................................................The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that Raymond James made changes to its ratings for

[puma1]

the crazy thing about the Raymond james report is that they are dropping nat gas from $3 down to $2.75 ---------- this is an 8% drop but would flow right to the bottom line and cash from operations, hence the amplified hit to share price. ....................... the problem is that BXE has hedged 66% of the 2018 nat gas at $3 and with the market rate for the rest you get an average locked in price

[Sixtyminuteman]

Puma, in reference to the Globe & Mail article: After trading in the market since 1987, I have found the majority of market commentators & analyst are tied into the 'Market Square-Knot', and they write accordingly. It all comes down to the dollar, and on which side they or their friends stand when they make their comments, period!

[puma1]

they certainly need to be taken with a grain of salt - btw - with that much experience I would have thought you would have picked up the giant mistake in the Oakwood investment post.

[Sixtyminuteman]

No, I missed the 'Oakwood Selloff Comment', but thanks to you I caught up. Puma, I've lost so much money on this one I really hate to look at it; I held on because at .60us we were nearing the bottom & then the 5 to 1 RS did me in. Was ready to sell last week, but the huge volume (five times normal US) appeared to be a 'Sell-Off Climax' to me, and with the price being right

[puma1]

I get this as one of the top 15 trading days - adjusted volume for the roll back - over the last FIVE years. that is a pretty serious day in context. the pop in gas prices with the Top pick on BNN and pretty much the end of funds selling and loss trading.

[puma1]

even higher volume today that almost goes into the Top Ten trading days in last Five years........................ getting some good money fow into the stock and it has closed with strong uptick into close as well................................................................................................

[TimeBuilder]

We believe J.S. is on BNN Market  Call TODAY..Will try to get in and ask the questions. Regards, TimeBuilder

[LTOWNER]

First Top Pick today on BNN by Josef Schachter.

[puma1]

thx for the heads up. --------------- helped a lot that nat gas is having a nice little uptick finally.

[puma1]

is he still putting out a $7 or so target?........................................................................

[puma1]

another way to look at price to book with more highly levered companies where market cap is less than the outstanding debt - this was big in the pharma space a while ago ---------------- add the market cap to the debt and comp it to Book value. in this case it is $92 + $350 which gives us $442 million ...................... this gives us a price to book of some 40%........... this is still lower