Replenish Nutrients Holding Corp C.ERTH

Bethune

[frostback]

Is the Bethune expansion going ahead, delayed or not happening?  Its time to put shovels in the ground and so far crickets on this topic.  Anyone have any insight on this project?  The credibility of this team is quickly evaporating every day that goes by with no update.  My guess is not this year at Bethune, but could there be negotiations with the other producers in Saskatchewan as well.

[1condor]

Technically the stock is walking the wire today....if 30 cents doesnt hold then its going to dip quickly back to 25 cents. So any new buyers (or adders) be patient and watch this level. Any news on the Bethune expansion would be welcome.

[1condor]

Support just broke at 30 cents....its on its way to 25 cents...dont buy until then.

[frostback]

How low can it go?

[1condor]

frostback...with this market carnage it will be next to impossible for a spec stock like ERTH not to be effected. I see 25 cents for sure as next support..but will admit its possible the support will not hold in this environment. It will come to the point of capitulation (we are not there yet) in the general markets that many will sell "everything" just to get out. This does look like a

[frostback]

I sold at 0.33 and am waiting for some stability to re enter.  At this point it certianlly does seem the 0.25 mark will be breached.  I agree with carnage in the market recently and believe some opportunity exists.  GLTA

[1condor]

frostback...it doesnt look like 25 cents is going hold so I believe we are on our way to next weak support around 22 and then eventually 20 cents. No rush to buy. Very ugly out there today with no change in sentiment expected.

[1condor]

nice little pop on low volume this morning. If markets hold then it may just close in the green...but we'll see. Still a very ugly market out there

[SmilingDog]

They've continued to sound very confident on Bethune. I don't think there's a question in their minds on whether it's happening. But keep in mind how large of a project this is. This would essentially 5x their capacity. So it's not surprising a project this size will take some time. Will Bethune be producing in 2023? I'm not sure. However, based on where they are today, I

[frostback]

Interesting comments on Bethune.  Earthworks season is well under way and I would expect if this project is in the bag then there should be some movement very soon – perhaps news will come May 19th.   The project SCOPE is not insignificant for a company of this size and expect there will be challenges to overcome reinforcing the need to take time to have a fully prepared plan, which

[SmilingDog]

I think investors, like myself, would actually welcome a smaller more digestable project that still significantly moves the needle and should be easy to execute on. It's important to note that ERTH is not a commodity producer and therefore take little to no commodity risk. They are a "spread" business. They buy the inputs and sell their fertilizer at a targeted gross margin between

[frostback]

SD- thanks.  I had failed to consider that the business is based on blending and reselling blended material as opposed to being a producer.  This does change the risk profile by hopefully removing the pricing swings of inputs but I am certain that there are other risks to be considered in terms of pricing and supply agreements, among other risks .  Either way, smaller quicker

[SmilingDog]

Anytime. It's definitely a very misunderstood and still under the radar company. The valuation at around 1x THIS YEAR'S sales is representative of that. This upcoming call will be very helpful in not only showing how attractive this business is today, but that they have a clear path forward to very strong growth over the near and long term. By the end of next week we should be valuing this

[1condor]

SmilingDog....I think it woiuld be safe to assume that if commodity prices sell off so with ERTH. Just like when oil dips so do the pipelines. That brush can be very wide when it comes to commodities.

[SmilingDog]

I hope you're right. I love when these retail oriented stock get irrationally sold for reasons that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the business. Those typically provide the best opportunities for outsized returns.  Although based on the current global situation right now, it's hard to see fertilizer input prices getting anywhere close to historical norms over the

[1condor]

SmilingDog..I agree. The market is ugly right now and opportunities are popping up daily. I have a 43 percent cash position right now...the highest I have ever held. I started nibbling on some of these opportunities over the last couple days. Sure is nice when we get a "sale" in the market. I currently dont hold a large position in ERTH but find it an interesting company and may add in

[1condor]

frostback...good point about the need to not drag out this project. Its possible by 2024 (maybe even next year) that commodity prices will have cooled. If I can 50 cents out of this stock I will be gone with my gains.