From what I can tell, the range on the street is $6 - $10/Sol Share (it all depends on the trading value of Verano and the results of the litigation).
If you assume that Verano trades on par/median with its peer group....than it will be a little less than $10.
To put it in perspective:
@Verano Share price of $20 per share (the Low End of the Peer Group with Verano at $20/share) - Sol's Share is worth $504MM (Post Tax of $403.2MM)
@Verano Share price of $32 per Share (Median of Peers with Verano at $32/share) - Sol's Share is worth $806MM (Post Tax of $645.12MM)
If you then add in the Bluma Post-Tax Value of ~$75MM (assuming the deal closes)
+ If you add in the Post-Tax NAV of the remaining portfolio companies of $28MM
and then Deduct the Debt, Accrued Interest, Payables, Liabilities of ~$65MM
You end up with a Post-tax Range of $441.2 to $683.12MM
Using ~72MM Fully Diluted Shares (which includes the new comp plan) this translates to a post-tax value range of $6 - $9.50.
If you treat it on a pre-tax basis, its closer to $8 - $12 / Sol Share.
However, if Sol trades towards the higher end of its peer group (which it may given its higher EBITDA margins, broader multi-state footprint, larger revenue growth rates, and stronger State moats in restricted licensures), than it would trade on a:
- pre-tax basis closer to $47/share - Sol's Share is worth $1184.4MM (Post Tax of $947.52MM)
with all the other additions/subtractions yielding a
high-end post-tax basis of $985.52MM or, equivalently, $13.68/sol share or, alternatively
on a pre-tax basis of $17/sol share.
Hope that puts things into perspective and helps you understand possible ways to triangulate on the valuation on a:
pretax basis of $8 (low-end), $12 (Median-end) and $17 (High-end)
Post-tax basis of $6 (low-end), $9.5 (Median-end) and $13.68 (High-end)
There is of course pending litigation with a lender (i.e., 1235 Fund) that, if Sol loses, can also reduce all the above values by:
~$90MM or $1.25/share (on the low-end of Verano at $20/share)
- $135MM or $1.875/share (on the median-end of Verano at $30/share),
- $166.5 or $2.3125/share (on the high-end of Verano at $47/share)
I know that's a lot to absorb, but, with a bit of luck, it will give you the levers and numbers to think about as you triangulate on what the value of Sol Global should or could be.