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07:16 AM EST, 02/14/2022 (MT Newswires) -- Desjardins said the focus this week in Canada will be the consumer price index (CPI) report of January, to be published on Wednesday (at 8:30 a.m. ET). The bank's above-consensus call for a 0.7% monthly gain was consistent with inflation accelerating to 5.0% y/y from 4.8%. Pressure will come from gasoline, for which weekly tallies suggested a 4.5% monthly rebound. Food looked also likely to come in strong, as was seen in the United States where food jumped 1.0% on the month non-seasonally adjusted (NSA), doubling the pace of December, pointed out Desjardins. Air transportation should see a seasonal decline, after jumping nearly 25% in December. In the months ahead, services will be key to watch, as wage growth appeared set to accelerate and as pass-through sentiment among businesses had been elevated. Recent disruptions in the trucking industry will also start to get reflected. The bank continued to assume easing pressure in goods, if only because of base-year factors, although energy price risks were still tilted to the upside in the very near term. While its forecast was for Canadian inflation to avoid reaching the heights of US inflation, neither did Desjardins predict a return to the Bank of Canada's (BoC) operational target range before next year. Other releases this week included the January sales of existing homes on Tuesday, December manufacturing sales on Wednesday (0.8% Desjardins estimate, 0.6% consensus, 2.6% prior) and December retail sales on Friday (-2.1% Desjardins forecast, -2.1% consensus, 0.7% prior), pointed out the bank. On the BoC front, Deputy Governor Tim Lane will be giving a speech on Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. ET, titled: "Central Bank Decision-Making in Turbulent Times". The speech appeared likely to reiterate prior signaling about the speed and frequency at which the BoC should be expected to adjust its views, added Desjardins. At its last meeting, the BoC declared that the Canadian economy was essentially at full capacity, a significant shift from the previous guidance signaling that full capacity would likely be reached only in the middle quarters of the year. Governor Tiff Macklem said to be "prepared for the unexpected and be humble" in his FT op-ed of a few months ago. In the US as well, Jerome Powell highlighted the need to be "nimble", while avoiding thinking about the last cycle's normalization path as the playbook for the current cycle. Desjardins expected Lane's speech to broadly reiterate these themes. There will be no press conference. |