Trillion Energy International Inc. C.TCF

Calculations/thoughts...

[jrk8888]

*based on recent TCF news releases I've got some "guesstimates" on current/future production/revenue moving forward. 

Current production 2 wells 3 + 3.3 MMcf/d 49% converted to boe/d = 
roughly 260 boe/d per well to TCF

Working backwards. Using the 24 mil US after royalty number. I get roughly $37 million revenue CDN for the 2 wells per year. (24x1.14x1.35)

With 10 wells in production TCF should exit 2023 with about $15.42 million CDN monthly or $185 million annual revenue based on current pricing and production rates.

Considering TCF has zero debt and little operating costs outside of drilling. These wells should still  be very profitable, even with the low production rates.

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN OR IF THE FLOW RATES WILL STOP BEING RESTRICTED.

If TCF can get production up to at least 4.5 MMcf/d per well which is at the low end of historical production. This would represent roughly 375 boe/d to TCF or a 44% increase in revenue.

The 2023 exit revenue would jump to $22.2 mil a month or $266 mil CDN.

The 17 wells would have about $450 mil CDN revenue annually or $37.5 million a month based on current pricing. 

If flow rates stay the same I think TCF can get to $2+/share in the next 18 months.
 
If the restrictions come off I can see TCF easily getting to over $3+/share.

[Moremoney4u]

STAGGERRING. YES, it is very possible to have this type of CASH FLOW,  AND,   NO DEBT. SO, now we have this enormous amount of cash available. PAY A DIVIDEND, BUYBACK SHARES, DEVELOP the CEDERE OIL FIELD (100% owned by TCF ), buy more land in area, recently there was an article that he was looking to acquire more LAND,  or PUT MORE RIGS TO WORK. The options are ALL very

[Abedim15]

Easy now, take a step back. TTF prices - illogically- down 45% over the last month. Like you, I think TCF has great potential based on the solid factors that you mention but it's a wacky market where factors beyond control can impact results. Timing is everything, consider why it is that TCF picked up this play- infrastructure and all at such a steal. I'm in but please a little less rah

[Goldy63]

Looks like some reasonable conservative numbers . Nice post. Another wild card is what NAT/GAS Prices will command . Going to be epic yup . 

[BLACKOILPEAKING]

I would be happy for a double in price but i think a 10 bagger in 5 years = a triple every year at todays price.

[fredo1]

JR, you have not factored in  25-30% first year production declines. The 4.5 mmcf/d per well rates that I also had assumed are not being used by Art in his projections so I don't think we should use them either.

[Buyreallow]

Uncertain that declines will be that significant in first year.  The pay zone is quite large, and Trillion has said they can perforate the well at higher locations if declines occur, so we may see close to original results for a few years.

[jrk8888]

thanks for some feedback. Have shares and .11 warrants here. If things continue to go well  I don't think $2+ share in 18 months is that out of the question. They should have close to all 17 wells in production. Oil prices are expected to rise and nat gas in Europe will  be tight for a few years. Cheers.

[Moremoney4u]

ART MENTIONED THAT THE current two wells will generate , between 20 - 24 MILLION IN 2023. WE will have 8 more wells in 2023 , should they all generate that type CASH. ANOTHER SAY, 20 million for every two wells, the CASH IS STAGGERING. THIS IS A CASH COW.   $$ $$.    $ 1.50 by year end. LETS see what the next two wells bring. THIS will be the catalyst . 

[Buyreallow]

Rough calculation would be just over $1 million per month per well.

[jrk8888]

"Based on the first 15 days of December gas production for both the South Akcakoca-2 and Akcakoca-3 wells, gas revenue for December will be about US$ 2.1 Million (after royalties) net to Trillion. Based on current pricing and production rates, revenue after royalty for these two wells will be between an estimated US $20 to $24 Million for the 2023 calendar year." So gas revenue, AFTER