Post by
lifegoeson on Feb 10, 2024 12:35pm
Tocvan's stock prices pushes near $0.50 without news.
Tocvan closed Friday at $0.48 on 76,100 shares, up $0.035 on the day. It was a strong week with the stock price surging past the $0.40 barrier, trading over over 230,000 shares.
It is always a good sign to see a stock move up on strong volume without news. This is generally an indication of strong support for what is about to happen.
It takes well over 10 to 20 years after discovery before a company can establish the metrics required to begin the process of engaging the government to permit a property for production. In reality, only a small percentage, perhaps 4% make it to this stage, the rest of the companies fail for many reasons, such as too costly to mine the resource, inability to fund drilling operations, or simply lack of expertise as many companies are only established by professionals as stock plays. Of the 4%, perhaps only half actually reach production.
Tocvan's Pilar property was first identified by the Lundin Group in 1995 during a geological field program and then it wasn't until 2010 when Bestop began their first drill program. Tocvan acquired the property over 4 years ago, and now there has been over 23,000 meters of combined drilling.
It is 2024 and only now will Tocan have enough conclusive data to file production permits. They have become members of the 4% club that manage to reach this milestone. The permitting process in Sonora Mexico takes about 12 to 18 months. During this time, Tocvan plans 10,000 meters of drilling (even as high as 20,000 m) targeting new discoveries and infill drilling at Pilar to publish a maiden resource.
It wasn't until October 26, 2003 that Tocvan initiated a UAV LIdar surface modelling across the Pilar recently acquired expansion area, thus beginning the important steps for mine permitting and planning. This work will be instrumental in advancing the process during the approval stage.
Tocvan will not be sitting idly by during the permitting process, but rather continue exploration and drilling to expand the resource while advancing production permits to expand the resource definition. The "Blue Sky" potential in the newly acquired area will add tremendous value to Tocvan as there have been new trends discovered, many old mining operations unearthed, and numerous surface discoveries.
I have been constantly asked, "why is it taking so long"?
If you look at companies going through this process, you will find many similar time frames. Tocvan's price peaked at $1.67 back in the summer of 2021 when a successful drill program stirred the interest of investors, it also attracted market traders.
Unfortunately, this was simply too early in the life cycle described above, and the price was sold back, this combined with a downturn in the resource sector, the price continued to slide below $1,00 and eventually bottomed this year at about $0.30.
The drop in price was painful, but this pain was felt in most resource companies.
The value of Tocvan remains unchanged, and there have been no material events that led to this price decline. In fact, Tocvan played their cards right, managed to finance operations, continue with critical metallurgical studies and conduct an important and significant heap leach study, but most importantly for shareholders, Tocvan kept their share structure very low (only about 41 M shares outstanding).
There are NO CONSOLIDATIONS coming here.
The nice part about this pullback, it showed how strong the shareholder base of Tocvan is, and it gave those shareholders a chance to average down and participate in cheap financings (as I did). The best part, it has attracted new shareholders who understand the dynamics of these types of production plays and just how serious and committed Tocvan remains.
As my dad always said, "you have to know when to fold your cards (cut your loses) in a depressed resource market by selling your losers as they generally head to consolidation".
I never really understood this until later in my life. I would constantly watch a stock drop like a deer in the headlights of a rapidly moving car until it was worthless and eventually consolidated. The bad promoters would catch me again flat footed, strip me of my dignity, and make me feel worthless - literally worthless.
My dad also said, "consolidate your portfolio in a down market and place big bets on the winners when prices are cheap because eventually when the stock markets turn, the first ones to move and provide you with a win will be the good ones".
So here I am, for good or bad, I am a believer in the current timing and potential success of Tocvan in becoming a producer. There will still be lots learned until production begins and/or a buyout occurs.
Lastly, I love the El Picacho property and what has been proven there, this alone could be a company maker for Tocvan - like I said before, Tocvan is a two property company.