Tocvan closed essentially even on the week at $0.34, trading 5,200 shares on Friday and only 100,200 shares for the entire week. This is by far the quietest week of trading for Tocvan this year.
Is this the Calm before the Storm?
In my experience, after a significant price pullback and several weeks of trading at the low end of the trading range, this usually indicates the price is fully consolidated, i.e. the profit takers and impatient shareholders have exited. This type of consolidation is also indicative of a strong shareholder base and company with a low number of shares outstanding - Tocvan has only around 42 M shares on a non-diluted basis.
What will be the catalyst to cause existing shareholders to buy more shares (averaging their purchase share price) and to attract new shareholders. There are several catalysts. I believe the first and most important will be the commencement of drilling. There has clearly been a delay but I suspect it is just a matter of time before the drills begin to turn. The goal of Tocvan is to drill at least 10,000 meters this year and perhaps as high as 20,000 meters depending on financing.
There are other key drivers that will bring significant confidence in achieving the plan Brodie Sutherland has laid out in a recent Press Release. For example, completion of Colibri Resource's remaining 49% of Pilar and completion of the remaining land acquisition. I am sure part of the delay is due to negotiations and funding these two activities, as well as the completion of a long-term contract with a local driller.
From April 29th, 2024 Press Release, "finalization of a long-term arrangement with a new Sonora-based drill company, Canmex Exploraciones y Servicios (CANMEX). The newly formed CANMEX is made up of management and operators with extensive experience in Sonora including several successful drill campaigns across the company's Pilar and Picacho projects. Owned and operated by longtime Tocvan supporters Leo Wurtz and Gerardo Martinez, CANMEX has at its disposal three RC rigs, five diamond core rigs and two truck-mounted water well rigs. All of this equipment can be utilized by the company during the next phases of exploration and development. The arrangement allows for cost-effective drilling to continue across both projects with a trusted local operator known for drilling excellence and environmental stewardship.).
No doubt Tocvan is juggling a lot of balls but I suspect it will be well worth the wait. Nothing has materially changed or I suspect the price would have been knocked down to pennies by now, but instead, buyers have consistently stepped up to buy stock in the $0.30 price range.
As my Dad said far too often, "Patience son, Rome wasn't built in a day.". How true this has been in my life. When I first started trading on my own, I was easily spooked and would sell my shares due to impatience, but once I matured and learned this lesson, I played the game much better and managed to stay with the winners. The worst feeling I had was shortly after selling, news would come out and the price would appreciate, thus I would miss out on significant profits. I am sure everyone has had that sinking feeling at some point in their life.