VSBLTY Groupe Technologies Corp C.VSBY

Is this really a SaaS play?

[dudu18]

Just looking through financials for the latest quarter.

License fees: $91,900
Professional Services: $24,016
Hardware: $406,767

So the closest to SaaS based revenue would be the license fee. That works out to under 18% of the total revenue. Extrapolate for the year (4x quarterly rev) and add a 100x multiple (very very very very generous)... and you end up with $40 Mill for valuation here.

Next up would be professional services revenue. Extrapolate for the year and add a 2x multiple and you end up with $200k here

Hardware, based on margins might have some value. But this is pretty much throwaway as there is no indication of margin here. At the most valuation here would be 1x earnings.. So even at a 10% margin and extrapolating for the year, this would put the valuation for this part of the business around $160k

In total, at a very generous valuation (consistent growth, management team performing, burn going down etc), this should be valued around $40 Mill. Based on performance of the last 2 years, and constant misses from guidance.. you probably end up around $10 Mill for valuation here. Currently the equity value is $240 Mill... or 6x from where it should be, if the team was executing flawlessly and 24x from where it probably should be..

PS I am neither long, nor short.

[kooter33]

Dude18,,,,,,,,,,,  seems you have a lot of negativity towards VSBY and its potential based on your posting history which BTW, is all directed at VSBY. Life must suck!  Seems you are always looking in the rear view mirror. AND to top it off you have NO position in the company, LONG or SHORT.  Are all your days as boring as what you post?

[dudu18]

Personal insults. Is that really the best you can come up with? Why not respond to the actual content of my post? SaaS companies get valued on software license revenue, not hardware. Multiple is whatever it is based on execution, growth rate, margins etc. I was very generous in assigning the multiple for the license revenue. I posted my opinion based on the financials that the company has shared

[Jb2222]

Austin gis is being priced in as well.

[dudu18]

That is valid. Its the same as Yahoo and Alibaba where the Alibaba stake that Yahoo owned was worth more than the rest of the Yahoo business. The challenge with AustinGIS is that there is no publicly disclosed information in regards to revenues or cost, so a very hard thing to value right now.  

[Jb2222]

Speculative but if Austin gis makes as money as some expect then vsby has decent upside, agree? Pertinent concern for me is their cash burn rate and future dilution to stay afloat.

[dudu18]

There is certainly some value for AustinGIS. But what exactly is it? AustinGIS is a new entity with no revenues right now. In the past organizations like Google couldn't really succeed in the smart cities space (sidewalk labs). But lets assume AustinGIS will figure out a way to start generating revenues. It will be services revenues. For VSBLTY's stake to be worth $200 Mill

[MakingSense]

Thank you for your insights Dudu. Refreshing.

[CafeCuban]

In silicon valley today, it takes 10+ years to take a unicorn company public at multi-billion $$s valuation..after several rounds of funding totaling 100s of millions of dollars. VSBY should be in that category, maybe 6th year of start-up, high-risk, missed milestones, pivoting frequently (SaaS today, data tomorrow, AI next day), company's fortunes tied to key founders, valuing the company

[dudu18]

I can certainly understand this perspective. The challenge is exactly what you have pointed out. After 4/5/6 years silicon valley companies that end up becoming unicorns end up showing tremendous amounts of growth and traction in key metrics (number of users, revenue etc). They might still be burning money, so negative earnings, but they are usually generating a tremendous amount of revenue that

[Jb2222]

It is a risky play if anyone is long. But as a stock it has a lot of good volatility for trading... For longs the speculative nature of the company is clear and as Cuban rightly put it, need cult like belief to gamble on some of the more optimistic scenarios that pumpers are throwing out. Is continual missing of guidance something that happens regularly in microcaps? Is the share count being

[CafeCuban]

Check with IR - Jay or someone else will usually respond on warrants/cap table and future dilution prospects. GLTA!

[equity4481]

I think prior to you posting anything on this board, you should do your DD on the company, announcing revenue, cash position, contracts, etc. And your reference to a "cult like belief" is really supporting ignorance of the facts. VSBLTY is a 10% owner in Austin GIS, an IaaS startupcompany with the owners( including HCL, TH and likely Intel), had contracts with 911inform, UST Global, ABI