With COVID-19 cases rising in multiple provinces after a summer lull, more signs point to Canada entering an expected fourth wave of the pandemic — one which could be dramatically different from earlier surges, thanks to rising vaccination rates, but not entirely pain-free.
The country's seven-day average for new daily cases is now close to 1,300 — an increase of nearly 60 per cent over the previous week, with cases ticking back up mainly in B.C., Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec.
"We're absolutely in the fourth wave," said Dr. Peter Juni, who is the scientific director of Ontario's COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. "There's no doubt about that."
But unlike previous waves, which overwhelmed various hospital systems and led to catastrophic death in long-term care facilities, there is hope this spike won't be quite so dire.
High vaccination uptake across the country has changed the game: Roughly 60 per cent of Canadians are now fully vaccinated, and research continues to show leading vaccines offer high levels of protection from serious illness, even against the fast-spreading delta variant.
"We can effectively have more cases in our population without having as severe an impact on our health-care system," explained Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist with the University of Toronto's Dalla Lana School of Public Health.
"But that doesn't mean that we're out of the woods."
Multiple experts who spoke to CBC News stressed the need to keep precautions like mask-wearing in place to avoid the worst of what this wave could bring, while also striving to ensure as many Canadians as possible get their shots.
"The point is we can't go back to normal," said Juni. "Because we continue to have a challenge with the large proportion of people who remain unvaccinated."
WATCH | Canada could be seeing the start of a delta-driven 4th wave:
Canada could be seeing the start of a delta variant-driven 4th wave
New Public Health Agency of Canada COVID-19 data shows an uptick that could be the start of a fourth wave, driven by the spread of the delta variant. 2:05 90% of cases among unvaccinated
Unprotected individuals around the world have proven vulnerable to the highly contagious delta variant in recent weeks, with surges of cases — including serious infections and deaths — in areas of low vaccine coverage, ranging from entire regions in Africa to certain U.S. states.
"This is going to overwhelmingly be a disease of unvaccinated Canadians and under-vaccinated populations," said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases physician and member of Ontario's COVID-19 vaccine task force.
The latest available federal public health data shows roughly 90 per cent of all COVID-19 cases reported in Canada since the start of the country's vaccination program in mid-December have been among unvaccinated individuals.
Just a tiny portion of cases — 0.5 per cent — have been reported among people who've been fully vaccinated, with a similar breakdown for hospitalizations and deaths in the same time period.
Compared to unvaccinated individuals, fully vaccinated COVID-19 cases were 70 per cent less likely to be hospitalized and 51 per cent less likely to die as a result of their illness, according to the latest federal update.
Bogoch stressed that as more and more people get vaccinated, the hope is the total number of people falling seriously ill or dying from infection will remain relatively low, even if overall COVID-19 cases continue to spike.
"We'll still see positive cases in the vaccinated," he explained. "But proportionally those won't amount to hospitalizations."