NDAQ:CARE - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on May 12, 2021 9:10am
RBC 2
Their upside scenario target is $26.00. GLTA
May 11, 2021
Dialogue Health Technologies Inc.
Growth outlook intact following solid Q1/21
Our view: Dialogue reported slightly stronger than expected revenue and relatively in-line Adj. EBITDA in the company's first quarterly report following its March IPO. We view the release as modestly positive, with updates indicating that the company has continued to build its membership base and has made progress in expanding its offerings to existing customers in recent months. While we see significant fundamental upside potential for the business, we believe this is reflected in Dialogue's current relative valuation. Maintaining $18 target and SP rating.
Key points:
Q1/21 revenue modestly above, EBITDA fairly in line with expectations.
Revenue of $15.2MM was above RBCe $14.6MM and consensus of $14.5MM, and increased by 13% q/q. The Adj. EBITDA loss was -$5.0MM, slightly below RBCe/consensus of -$4.7MM due to higher overhead. Following its recent $100MM IPO, the company had cash of $129MM and debt & lease liabilities of $3.6MM as of March 31st, in our view providing financial flexibility to support organic growth initiatives and fund acquisitions.
Ongoing membership growth during the quarter. Dialogue's recurring/ reoccurring revenue run-rate increased to $65.3MM from $60MM+ as of January, and the company had 1.27MM members on its Virtual Health Platform as of March 31st, up from 1MM+ as of January. Dialogue has secured new customers "including a major telecom, two top-30 law firms and a brand name consumer retailer." In addition, the attach rate (average number of services per member) increased to 1.08 in Q1/21 from 1.07 at YE2020 as Dialogue rolled out its Mental Health and Employee Assistance Program (EAP) offerings to more Primary Care members, and mgmt. noted that 44% of customers signed in the quarter are accessing more than one program. Dialogue is still working to transition Optima EAP members to its virtual platform.
Slight revisions to our financial estimates. We now forecast 2021 revenue of $73.5MM (increased from $70.5MM) and an EBITDA loss of -$13.8MM (prev. -$14.8MM). Our 2022 estimates also increase modestly, while our 2023 outlook is fairly stable (see RHS & Ex. 1). We now assume growth in the number of virtual platform members to 1.65MM by YE2021 vs. 1.58MM previously, maintaining longer-term forecasts, and we modestly increase our attach rate estimates, offset by lower per-member-per-month pricing for each program as more members access multiple programs (Ex. 2-4).
Reiterating $18 target and SP rating. Our target remains based on 13x NTM EV/sales (Exhibit 6). We believe Dialogue’s B2B platform with three live programs, strategic partnerships with large insurers, and solid balance sheet position the company to capitalize on growth in demand for virtual care. In our view, our strong fundamental growth outlook is reflected in Dialogue's valuation vs. North American peers; Dialogue is trading at 10.7x RBCe 2021E-22E average EV/sales, at a premium to the peer average of ~7.5x (in a ~3-11x range). See our recent initiation report here for more detail on Dialogue.
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