Post by
MontyHigh on Sep 03, 2008 1:29pm
Ok, So Where Do We Stand?
Ok, let's see where we stand:
(a) The threat that these guys are crooks and that this is a total scam has gone way, way down.
(b) Management has made some pretty nice moves without a lot of resources (money in the bank) to assist them. They got enough money to continue exploration, got some good specialists on board to do the exploration and have got Tanzanian insiders on their side to smooth over getting permits, etc.and to keep the government's hands from getting too sticky.
(c) Management still leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to "getting things done in a timely fashion" and when it comes to "communicating effectively with stockholders" and probably when it comes to exaggerating the true state of things (the money is in the bank, the announcement is coming this week, when actually the deal isn't even signed yet.).
So, at this point it comes down to the exploration results. Are they really as good as management has made it sound and as Bob Moriarty thinks and the initial results indicate?
We'll see. Anyone who is already in has a promising, but risky speculation where its either going to be a multibagger or go to zero. I think its a good speculation worth the risk reward, but I certainly wouldn't want to recommend it to anyone I'd like to keep a relationship with after the results finally come out. I don't think you can expect many new speculators given the rocky road we've been down this summer. At least, not until some exploration results come out.
There's no point in pumping in my opinion until we know some more about how much gold there is and how good the grades are.
If someone wants to pump it they need to provide some numbers quantifying how many bags this multibagger could be. E.g. there's N million fully diluted shares and exploration could come up with M million oz with a valuation of M * 100$ / N share price once the exploration progresses. I haven't done that lately because I know its a really high share price and that I've got so many shares I'm either going to make up for a pretty bad year so far with this one position or have my portfolio go down another 2%.
There's about 50 million shares outstanding. So, if there's 1 million oz that's 2$/share at $100/oz. If you are pumping you can use Moriarty's 5 million oz and have a 25 bagger at 10$/share. Its really all about, now, how much gold is really there.
So, I think its time to sit back and wait to see whether its "too the moon" or not. I expect I'll know by my birthday (Mar 2009).
That's how I see it now. How do you see it?
MontyHigh
Comment by
Des1302 on Sep 03, 2008 2:11pm
I like how you see it, but why are you using $100/oz??? Aren't you being ultra conservative?How bout we use $500/oz and get to $10 dollar per share..and if we used BM numbers we would be at $50 per share.Now that's some good pumping :-)
Comment by
MontyHigh on Sep 03, 2008 3:08pm
Explorers with good properties get $100/oz (rule of thumb). Maybe DLKM's will be worth more because its easier to extract (alluvial), so use whatever number you think. When the time comes, what I say will not affect this puppy's price. MontyHigh
Comment by
friendlywolf2 on Sep 03, 2008 8:10pm
May you ive in interesting times :-)