I'm posting in response to cttglvr's comments about the sellers being uninformed.
On the surface, I would agree. However, I think that a look at the 2 year chart of the ENB share price is quite useful.
Other than for the last two ENB dividends, you have to go back almost two years to Feb 2022 to find a period where the share price of ENB is not lower six weeks after it goes ex-divi.
What does that mean?
Other than overall market moves or some event with ENB, the stock trades in 3 month cycles. For the first six weeks (1/2 a cycle), ENB trades down. For the following 6 weeks before the next divi, ENB trades up.
How can it be so simple??????? ENB is a granny stock driven by cash flow management from its large dividend by investors (remember that retail shareholders barely count).
Why was ENB up after the Nov 2023 divi? This answer is easy. The market pounded the shiite out of ENB following the Sept 5, 2023 announcement about the company spending Cdn$19 billion (dilution warning) to buy 3 natgas distribution companies in the US from Dominion. Basically, there was nowhere for the share price to go but up.
Why was ENB up after the Feb 2024 divi? This one is not so clear cut. However, ENB did report good numbers and there was clarity provided about the progress of the natgas deal. Good numbers make the news but clarity helps fund managers. Fund managers won't risk their careers on the possibility of being wrong, so clarity is king.
So, where does that leave us?
The ENB share price has been on a nice roll with good Q2 numbers and clarity on the $2.5 billion ATM offering being completed. Will the roll continue after August 15 (ex-divi) or will the share price start to cycle downwards for 6 weeks like it ususually does (barrie events0?
The only problem with ENS historically IMO is that when the ENB share price takes a hit, ENS shareholders don't pay attention. As a result, the Premium to the NAV skyrockets and Middlefield ends up punching us in the mouth. You can't blame Middlefield as that is their game. All of the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of ENS investors. Normally, public companies have a large investitutional base but not ENS. Therefore, unsophisticated retail investors make mistakes and the pros pounce. Simple when you think about it.
This time around (in regards to the ENB ex-divi date), the Premium to the NAV for ENS is ridiculously low (approaching a 6% discount). You can buy ENS for $0.70 below the NAV which is nuts imo. But, until ENS shareholders can show discipline (and sell) when ENB drops, the jury is still out. As such, maybe the sellers are just being cautious as history has shown that Middlefield often does a Raise right after the month end following an ENB dividend.
Long explanation. Sorry