Alpha Minerals Inc ESOFD

premium

[patientriskyinvestor]

I agree, that it should be close to 50-50.  It depends on the relative cash positions.  The only issue is the calculation of fully diluted.  Once you add in all the options at FCU the ratio is 5.55 and that does not count the very latest options issued by FCU after the appointment of the latest director.  If Dev wants to force a merger, on his terms, with his managment team, then he needs to offer something to entice AMW b/c quite honestly no reason for AMW to capitulate.  They are the more attractive true "takeover" candidate since they become operator on Jan 1, 2014.  Any true takeover by a non-JV partner would have a very hard time closing before October, ie after the summer program or at least the last few days, and the drills probably won't start turning again until Jan.  If an outside party wanted to buy only 50%, they would not want FCU as non-operator for the next 2 years so if there is a premium, it would be for AMW's more attractive tactical position.  Current share price and daily market volume is for day trader's and short term investors.  An outside party could care less and the premium it will pay for one over the other is a premium to be the operator.

[letsgetready]

Patientriskyinvestor, what numbers do you have for fully diluted for both companies? the difference is cash is likely small, thats why i don't want to be valuing all the assets assets for both companies. they are immaterial to the issue. Who is the management of merged co. and the timing of the merger is important. AMW was trading at a discount to FCU so thankfully that has gone aware..i

[patientriskyinvestor]

don't have all numbers beside me, am not at desk, but easiest way is to look at latest Raymond James report or the calc by at Malcolm Shaw @ seekingalpha.com   Both of them come to 5.55 and 5.5 respectively

[bridgetonowhere]

@patientriskyinvestor - PLS's operator status is unrelated to AMW's market discount vis-a-vis FCU.  The market has decided that FCU is the dominant company and the only premium AMW shareholders can expect from a union with FCU is the AMW/FCU market discount.   It's also all AMW shareholders are entitled too because it's a swap and not a cash deal and give nothing up in

[dman34]

  How the heck can you make the assumption on behalf of the market that FCU is the dominant company? Just because their stock is more liquid and easier to push higher?  The only individuals who've made this ridiculous proclimation is Randhawa and the bankers that back him.  When did their word all of a sudden become gospel? I'm sure we'll hear something from Ainsworth

[bridgetonowhere]

@dman34 - It's simple to see that the market thinks FCU is more dominant than AMW.  Just compare the price charts between the two companies and you'll see that the market gives FCU a higher multiple.  Price is truth my friend.

[leverage1971]

And to further your point Bridge the small holder has no say in it... It is clear those with stock to play with are "helping" us to understand "this is going to happen...now or very soon you can get on with it or have it fed to you" I get it and I get that we will benefit. It has been said here and elsewhere that Dev will sell out at a 55% premium soon after FIS has all of AMW.

[bridgetonowhere]

@leverage1971 - I'm all in favour of proving up the resource, but at a certain point a major will decide they've seen enough and will make an offer.  When that happens AMW and FCU want to be positioned to attract competing offers.  One clean uncomplicated company accomplishes that best.  The worst case scenario would have a major take-over just one of AMW or FCU and then

[epz]

I don't know if I'd call him a small player he owns 3% of the company essentially once he exercises his options.

[bridgetonowhere]

@epz - You're probably right.  Discard the word "small."