Eurocontrol Technics Ord EUCTF

EUO leverage to SICPA and my rock bottom valuation on EUO

[Spiegel62]

Fuel marking programs total Worlwide stated market size : USD 1B

% of market taken by SICPA / Royalties / Dividends (70% of royalties) / Valuation at 10% yield 

5% : USD 50M  =  CAD 70M at 5% = CAD 3.5M, Dividend out 70%, 10% yield = 24.5c
10%  :  USD 100M = CAD 140M at 5% = CAD 7M Dividend out 70%, 10% yield = 49c
15% :USD 150M = CAD 210M at 5% =CAD 10.5M Dividend out 70%,10% yield= 73.5c
20% : USD 200M = CAD 280M at 5% = CAD 14 M Dividend out 70%, 10% yield = 98c
25%  : USD 250M = CAD 350M at 5% = CAD 17.5M Dividend out 70%, 10% yield = 1.22 
50%  : USD 500M = CAD 700M at 5% = CAD 35M Dividend out 70%, 10% yield = 2.44 

Rock bottom valuation on EUO: 


I´ll take a very mild conservative 20% market penetration from SICPA ( 98c), add up 25% of lscfa valuation for XwinSys https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.euo/eurocontrol-technics-group-inc?postid=24517521  so 19c more = 98 + 19 = 1.17 + cash on hand = CAD 1.33 

So close to 10 BAGGER from current price. 

Note that while this valuation gives very little for XwinSys and XwinSys make ultimately not come to fruition, it gives NO VALUE for Xenemetrix sales, which will grow exponentially as SICPA gets contracts for GFI as Xenemetrix is now their sole supplier ( on exclusive contract basis) for spectometers.

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[shawshank]

[Trooperhobo]

With respect to SPICA contracts....will we ever get news on contract awards from them...since they are a private company do they really need to announce anything.  Instead won't the news come in the way of financial reports where EUO will have to report the transactions as revenue?  An analsyt will only pump and a few pennies may go up, but won't hol dmym breath that this will

[lscfa]

May hear only twice a year via financial statements. The earn-outs are payable semi-annually.

[kidl2]

I could be wrong but I seem to recall that disclosure of SICPA / GFI contracts is covered in the purchase agreement. Something along the lines of there will be disclosure but the level of disclosure is subject to SICPA approval. Also, SICPA seems to announce (some / all?) new contracts in the news section of their website. And if all fails, there are these "wonderful" things called