Eurocontrol Technics Ord EUCTF

Accutrace (Zen) & EU Tender Value

[kidl2]

Zen: Thanks for clearing up the technical aspect.
 
You are mentioning in your post that Ireland is using 49 GC-MS equipped vehicles to run the program.
I wonder if we can use this number to extrapolate the potential value of the EU tender ... ???
 
Ireland’s population: ~4.6 Mil
U.K. population: 64.4 Mil
 
EU population: 508 Mil.
Excluding U.K. & Ireland: 439 Mil
 
Let's use $75,000 operating cost per vehicle per year based on one employee per vehicle. Reasonable?
 
This would put the Irish monitoring portion cost of the Irish program at $3,675,000.
With Ireland representing roughly 1% of the EU population (excluding the U.K.), this would put the EU contract value into the $350 Mil range excluding injection cost (labour + equipment) and the actual cost of the marker.
 
Using this number, the program would cost around 10% of the roughly $4 Bil in annual tax losses due to fuel adulteration / smuggling.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-08-26/fuel-smugglers-costing-europe-more-than-4-billion-in-lost-taxes
 
Reasonable estimate?

[thedon]

I would think the $75,000 is way too low.  I think I read that two cops in a car in TO was $500k/year, but that was 15 years ago.  These fuel guys need expensive training as well. Each country may decide how to implement their local program, based on the nature of their revenue loss problem.   Some may just do random testing at gas bars and on fuel tankers. I wonder how much

[zenvesting]

Fairly reasoanble, but there's a lot of unknow variables,  As someone pointed out, your costs might be low, but also Ireland seams to have a very intensive problem because they have/had a very active fuel smuggling market.   Also, we're not sure if the EU tender is going to include logisitics, or if it's going to be implemented by the government, like in Ireland.   One

[lscfa]

Re: estimating economic impact.....The no. of field testing units will depend on the geographical expanse of the country, concentration of refining facilities and crime, frequency of testing, etc. I am sure it is a one man per vehicle job. This raises an interesting question - If SICPA provides a logistics solution for a country the service fee will include the depreciation of the SICPA owned

[thedon]

My impression is the 5% royalty deal is purely based on gross sales.   The spectrometer sales are a pure bonus to EUO.

[zario]

We read on some news release that the 5% earn-out would be calculated based on the gross sales. But it is clear from the Management information circular for the shareholders meeting that :   Post-closing earn-out payments equal to 5% of the net revenues earned by GFI from contracts entered into by it following the execution of the Purchase Agreement and during the period ending six