I am not sure what Fairfax will do with their shares after the lockup ends in April. Resolute has appealed the appeal to try once again to get the warrants cease traded. In the absense of new information or the inept judges, there is little chance they will win their appeal. The appeal court judges made the correct decision.
Resolute has extended their offer until Mar 19th and there is no chance they will get the 66 2/3% of the shares unless they raise their bid above the Mercer offer of $1.30. If they do not, Mercer will get over 50% of the shares by the April 6th deadline. This will marginalize Fairfax and friends position in Fibrek as they will have very little influence and their access to Fibrek inside information will end once and for all. Their only hope is that the warrant deal gets cease traded, which as I stated has a very slim chance of happening.
Resolute will have to raise their bid once Fairfax realizes that they have been out smarted. The Securities commissions in Quebec and Ontario need to investigate this further. There are so many disturbing issues that have come to light. It is a powder keg of bad behavior, minority shareholder abuse, inside information etc.
My view -
1) Resolute loses appeal
2) Resolute does not get 66 2/3%
3) Resolute and Mercer will raise bids or do a deal to split up the assets.
4) The winning bid will be $1.45-$1.50 - still well below repalcement costs and true long term value.