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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Birch Hill Gold Corp. FNTRF

GREY:FNTRF - Post Discussion

Birch Hill Gold Corp. > Interesting Valuation
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Post by pmrider on Jun 02, 2011 2:42pm

Interesting Valuation

With approximately 33,000,000 o/s, the market is giving FDN a value of $4,950,000.  Considering they have $2,500,000 in cash, the value of the deposit is $2,450,000.  What's the market telling us?  It has to be saying that the CS deposit is Moose pasture - right?  Or are there other factors at work at the macro level?  Seems that might be some of the answer as well as fear has once again gripped the market and June is traditionally the worst month in the markets.

Not sure that I buy that this is Moose pasture at the moment.  If the deposit were a standalone, there would be case to be made, but there are many other companies in the immediate area and I suspect that if we total all the collective resources we would have something north of 5-6mm ounces.  That type of deposit at $1,500 gold does indeed command a significant valuation.

Within the next 2 months, we should have our first 43-101 and from what I understand the expectations are for something in the 1mm ounces.  This would not include the newly discovered Iris Lake zone and the resources at depth in the main zone.  Not hard to make a case that we ultimately end up at 2+ MM ounces, but the market is not a believer (but it's not only FDN, it's other jr. exploration companies as well).  I made a point of phoning some significant FDN shareholders yesterday and posed the following question:  If you were a big buyer at .30+, how come you're not buying it now?  The resounding conclusion is that they are tired of catching falling knives and their hands are bleeding.  Although true, experience has taught me that this is probably the time that one should be stepping up to the plate and at least averaging down. 

One other factor, is that there seems to be an individual or fund that has a "hatred" on for FDN.  Since approximately the middle of April, BMO has made a concerted effort to down tick the stock at every opportunity with 500 lot sell orders into the bid.  If this is someone that wanted to simply dump their position, that would have been possible at higher prices.  This has more of a malicious tone to it.  What is even more intriguing, is that as of May 16th, there is a short position of approximately 200k shares.  This is approximately the amount of the down tick by BMO since the middle of April when all this nonsense started.

Now I'm not going to bore you with valuations, but suffice to say that this should be worth more that .15 - shouldn't it?  Or am I missing something?  Constructive commentary welcome.
Comment by michael211 on Jun 02, 2011 6:53pm
excellent post, i also found the suspicious sell from house 009, which is BMO, I estimated the amout it dumped is approximately 3000-5000 shares daily, and I remember somebody in this board posted a short position on fdn each month, but i can't find that post now, maybe this is the trick, the MM short fdn first, then dump small shares at market on the bid side, we can see it is effectively ...more  
Comment by madtrader2 on Jun 02, 2011 7:25pm
Totally agree with you pmrider - as for michael211 there is something about you that doesn't sit right with me. I would like to know your motive. When I posted about the selling of house 009 a couple of weeks ago, this was your take on the situation." i am wondering how you get this conclusion ? All people know that the result is not good, actually it is bad, from the three ...more  
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