https://goldtothemoon.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/the-massive-hidden-value-in-geologix-explorations/
Here’s a more in depth analysis of Torex Gold and Geologix Explorations mine Tepal. Both are located near each other in Mexico so they are good objects to compare. This comparison shows Tepals ‘hidden’ value not yet reflected in the market cap. Here is the key data for both companies:
Torex Gold:
Location: Mexico
Resources: 11,2 moz gold eq
Capex: $725 m
Production capacity: 358 koz/year
Full production: 2017
LOM: 10,5 years
IRR: 23.7% after tax at $1500/oz gold
NPV: $1039 m after tax at $1500/oz gold 5% discount rate
Payback: 3,7 years
Cash cost: $504/oz net of by products
Start of production: Q3 2015
Market cap: $943 miljoner
Market cap per oz: $84,2
Geologix Explorations
Location: Mexico
Resources: 4,5 moz au eq (1,8 moz gold, 809 Mlbs koppar)
Capex: $354 m
Production capacity: 116,000 oz au (243,000 with copper & silver)
Start of production: 2017
LOM: 11,5 år
IRR: 34% after tax at $1518/oz gold & $3,71/lb copper
NPV: $568 m after tax at $1518/oz 5% discount rate
Payback: 2,9 years
Cash cost: $191 net of copper after tax all-in sustaining
Market cap: $8,5 m
Market cap per eq oz: $2
Torex mine is larger than Tepal with a NPV over $1 billion (at $1500/oz gold), Tepals NPV is $568, this and the fact that Torex is financed to production is the main difference between them. But this does not explain the extrem difference in market caps, currently Geologix market cap is only 0,9% of Torex market cap.
Depending on how Geologix solves the financing its potential varies. The more dilution the less upside remains. The ability to do non-dilutive financing is good because of management, among them are three Silver Wheaton guys, Eduardo Luna, Randy Smallwood and George Brack. These guys have done very large financings before and they have the contacts and credibility that is needed to attract capital.
In the best case scenario Geologix manages to take Tepal into produktion 2017 with low dilution, if the manages to do that the market cap should be able to reach same levels as Torex has in relation to its NPV. That would give Geologix a market cap of about $550 million, to reach that the stock must go up 6,400%. If you are positive on the gold price that number should be even higher.
