Hudson's Bay Co. HBAYF

As investors, let's quantify this

[Bookends]

1-Chances of Baker Upping his bid to 11$?? I would say 60%-70%, say 65% odds...

2-Baker walking away and Catalyst negociating with the special committee to have their 11$ offer become the official plan of arrangement.... Hummm, say 20% odds? Remember that the committee asked for all the financing details and didn't come with any flaw to it other than Baker's group would reject it. 

3- Baker walks away and Catalyst also abandon it's bid... The SP would fall to say 6.5$... 15%odds...

So, assuming an entry on the stock at 8.7$

1- You get a 65% chance of getting a 26.43% return... With a slight chance of getting an even better price than 11$.
2- You get a 20% chance of getting a 26.43% return...
3- you get a 15% chance of getting a 25.29% loss...

Well, if casino's offered these kind of odds, I would be playing at them all day long for an actual job.

If anyone disagress with the odds, please let me know and elaborate.

Thanks

[wheeloffortune]

Where do you get these odds from? 2-Baker walking away and Catalyst negociating with the special committee to have their 11$ offer become the official plan of arrangement.... Hummm, say 20% odds? Remember that the committee asked for all the financing details and didn't come with any flaw to it other than Baker's group would reject it.  3- Baker walks away and Catalyst also abandon

[Bookends]

Dude, of course, I'm making my own odds based of my feeling of the possible outcomes... I'm looking to hear if people feel like they have similar probabilities on the possible events or completely dissagree. 

[estebancaballo]

We dont have enough info to make educated guesses imo. I think Baker could try to bluff by dropping his bid as he may feel the Catalyst bid is bogus...he could then come back with his bid if C drops out...but C could be serious and the he is screwed....just my musings...no basis in fact.

[Bookends]

Good points, I feel like Baker is heavily invested in this and it'll be hard for him to pull out such a bluff to test the Catalyst bid... I think the shenanigans have went on for long enough and it woud just be a shame for Baker to keep it up... He tried to bully us into submitting to 10.3$, we said no... Now either you walk away or you come back on your words and sweeten the price to

[estebancaballo]

Impossible to quantify imo