Post by
ClubSodaKing on Aug 13, 2018 7:21pm
take a breather and look at the real numbers.
The math that I am seeing on MMEN and GTII here is completely incorrect and shows people have not actually read through their documents. What you see on yahoo finance or whatever you're using is a small part of the actual share count outstanding from how these companies have structured their RTOs. They do this to get around being an SEC reporting issuer because of their American operations. The true count is roughly 149 million shares for Green Thumb and 413 million for MedMen when you factor in how their different share classes act. The true valuations are MUCH higher than you are seeing based on the displayed share counts. Now look at their valuation in comparison to their revenue and you get a better picture of what a $50 mm 2017 revenue figure potentially means. Together these two companies have less than $50 mm in TTM revenue and their real valuations are currently just over $3 billion combined when you take into account their complicated structures. Any institutional investor or anyone sophisicated enough to understand deal structuring will get this and look at it in that manner, not a simplistic caluculation like the ones I am seeing here.
So we are at $0.165 right now and they are going to issue $200 mm worth of shares. Notice how they said "DEEMED" price... that means that it doesnt have to line up exactly. They did not give a share issue figure for a reason, they don't know it yet. No one will deem share value higher than the shares are actually worth on a dollars-in basis, so this will mean that each share will actually be worth more than $0.165 most likely and there will be a reduced total issue size. This will all come out in Form 2A under consolidated capitalization, which we should see relatively soon. These are not stupid people are they understand that absurd dilution serves no one, not to mention that the current holders of Lineage.
"An aggregate of 4,740,000 Units were issued in the tranche 1 closing completed on January 24, 2018 (the “Tranche 1 Closing”) for gross proceeds of $1,185,000. Each Unit has an issue price of $0.25 and consists of one (1) common share in the capital of the Company (a “Common Share”) and one common share purchase warrant (a “Warrant”). Each Warrant entitles the holder to purchase one additional Common Share at a price of $0.325 per Common Share, exercisable for a 24- month period until January 24, 2020."
12,129,664 units total were issued during this raise, which means around 1/4 of current investors and the most recent group to put money in will not be interested in seeing horrific dilution and/or a rollback that substaintially increases their ACB... unless there is a reason to believe that the share price on open will be high enough to justify either of those.
We also don't know the status of many of the other existing agreements that were either not binding or were subject to DD review. These could very well be part of this deal and be rolled into a MUCH larger whole.
Lets all take a breather and think clearly about the deal that is in front of us. This could be huge if it is done correctly. We don't have enough details yet to be making crazy assumptions like some people on this board.
Comment by
BayStreetkid on Aug 14, 2018 8:05am
Bingo... more details about medmen here: https://equity.guru/2018/05/29/green-organic-dutchman-tgod-t-medmen-mmen-c-hit-billion-dollar-valuation-one-smiling/