Hi guys,
long time no hear. I'm long in HRG since Mai 2009.
Since my last post end of July the Gold price went up from 1155 to 1345 thismorning in a straight line north and so did HRG.
If you have a closer look at the buying pattern each mid month since August (Q2-results)you find a very nice low volume phase 7.-10th of the month just before abreakout of the next 20% the 2-4 days after.
Since 2 days we are back into this monthly pattern again: Volume down from 2-3Mio/day to300K/500K @ stable share price.
Just look at some of the highlights of the current situation and this gives you an inside to the pattern:
1.) Since 21st of June HRG is registered at FTSE London (part of the 25 gold miners in the index)
2.) HRG's CEO reported potential factor 5 till year end during the well documented annualmeeting 30th of June. (share price was at 0.8 by then) --> factor 3 possibleat today’s price of 1.32.
3.) We have hit the 1$ barrier in August. The barrier is important forinstitutional investors to check for small caps. Small caps that hit the barrier with a decent daily volume are attracting the interest. They shift investments on amonthly basis with a few days of transfer time.
4.) Gold price went up from 1155 to 1345 = +17% (the story of the FE*Dcontrolling a level of + - 1200/oz was a stupid one)
This Leeds for HRG to a gain/oz of (1250-500) = 750$/oz in Q3 or evenhigher.
5.) Check the in-depth analysis of ccharleswood @ this board for more inside information and peers comparison
6.) Look at the analysis of the yearly gold price fluctuation: purchasingseason is about to come. The gold price could hit 1500$/oz by December, in thiscase the value of HRG (assuming an expected P/E of 12-19 is in SP's interest)could go up to 4-6$/share, so factor 3-4.5 from now is possible in just 2months.
7.) No major problems have been reported from the mines, so Q3 results will bebest ever for HRG and should come out for 15th of November (mid month again)
8.) P/E of 5.5 should be at pears level of 12-19 by IPO/End of the year forHRG, a factor 2-3.5 is possible in just 2 months.
9.) Mor*an Sta**ey and Cre*it-S*isse started purchasing mios of shares thisJune/July at 0,70 in average and have not sold much in-between (besides the 1,2$quick selling last month). Since then patience is at their side as well.
10.) IPO at 3-5 bn volume with a share price of 4-6$/share (depending on above factors) is achievable.
To me this story sounds like best gain ratio in a short period of time for new(or old) investors for the next 2-3 months. Best timing, best value, best P/E movment to come at the right time (Gold price movement)
Any missing"best" elements?
"Best" regards
TA