Keep in mind the following written by Chris only a few weeks ago. In reality, we are exactly where we thought we would be. While many unsuspecting minoritiy shareholders sold out - not knowing the issues - there are more than 10% that have taken the liberty to not tender, and have zero intention to do so.
My question has to do with the next steps Nord will take once they are STILL below 90%.
FROM CHRIS - https://www.marketwire.com/press-release/-1728252.htm
To date we have collected confirmations from shareholders with approx. 90.2M shares (10.73% of total HRG shares and 43% of minority) that they will not tender to Nord's offer. This includes shares owned in funds managed by Eric Sprott (HRG's largest minority shareholder). Nord would have needed 90% of minority to tender to the current offer in order to squeeze the rest out. With 43% of minority indicating they will not tender, this should prevent this from happening on the Nov. 27th expiry date. Also, since those holding over 10% of total shares have indicate they will not tender, Nord will not be able to use an exemption eliminating the requirement for a majority of minority vote in a second stage transaction. To use this exemption they would have needed to own 90% of total shares. Therefore, if Nord wants to continue its buyout effort and acquire all shares and vote the shares tendered to this offer, it will have to announce a subsequent amalgamation offer and complete the transaction within 120 days of the expiry of the current offer. Nord would need to call a special shareholders meeting with proper notice, which puts the earliest possible meeting dates around Dec. 31 - Jan. 2 range - depending on mailing and preparation time. At this meeting, only those voting in person or by proxy count. If a majority of minority is required, we may already be able to win this vote with the 90.2M shares if Nord cannot get a greater number to vote in its favour. However, to be certain we will be able to block, it would be best if we collect another 14.6M shares to garner ultimate majority of minority (104.8M shares). As with Nord's take-over attempt in 2009, there are certain funds that will not confirm their share counts or intentions, but will vote with us anyway. Therefore, I believe our numbers to be greater than stated above.