Petro Rio S.A. HRTPF

absurd valuation

[edka1]

don't bother bashing me - i don't care. Just want to get a word out there for those who might find it interesting.

valuation entered absurd territory: market cap slightly over $300M while company has more cash than that. I know skeptics would say the money would be spent on drilling - i get that. But HRT has two more payments left from Rosneft in the next year - $400M. In March Rosneft paid 3rd payment in amount of $200M. If you studied this company you should know that TNK-BP agreed to pay $1B in 5 payments over 2.5 years.

Gas from Solimones could bring as much as $100M a year. Just cash and gas monetization should command a higher market valuation of HRT. And if they find oil in Namibia and/or Solimones? Once again - my point is that gas alone would warrant a higher market cap than today's $300M. HRT has become a value play . Good luck to longs. Cheers.

[REBaller1]

I agree.  None of the institution buyers (5% or more) are selling.  Also, we were notified of a new institutional shareholder.  The did their own DD, but people on this BB "think" they know more than them.

[robnhood]

I am not 100% sure , but pretty sure that any money due from Rosneft(TNK) is owed to Petra partners and not  HRT. Hrt will just be the conduit.

[robnhood]

How do you know who is selling?  I saw one print of 10 million shares on the Bovespa a couple of weeks back. The seller for sure was an institution. The buyer most likely was another institution. Some people on this BB admit that they don't know who is buying or selling. Others pretend that they do. Yet, others think all the selling is by evil shorters.

[edka1]

HRT had a put/call option to sell/buy Petra's stake. The value of it was R$ 1,290 Bn. With R$ 2.14= US$ 1, the actual price is $ 603 millions (may be slightly more as real was stronger a year ago). The value of the transaction that surpassed this amount,  is split in two equal parts between Petra and HRT. So Rosneft/TNK paid $600M to date and that was passed on to Petra 100

[landmann]

Which, as I understand it, means the final payment wouldn't be made until sometime in 2014, and only after HRT met certain performance goals?

[robnhood]

You may be mixing this up with the milestones that HRT had to achieve to get these payments. None have so far been met and looking doubtful if they ever will.

[edka1]

you must be referring to a clasue that is tied to some perfromance metrics and it is above and beyond 1B. HRT could get up to 5B more if certain metrics are met.

[robnhood]

You appear to be the only one who knows about all of this incoming money. Hard to believe.

[edka1]

no wonder that HRT price is so distressed as most people bought the hipe or rumor or news and didn't bother reading thoroughly financials and other documents that were available. so when they buy and price goes down they start panicing and sell. I bought over the last 3 months and will hold on until market realizes that there is value and if oil is found then ... fireworks. But if

[robnhood]

I certainly hope that you make a ton on your investment in HRT, but I'm pretty sure that you are wrong about the money coming in from TNK.  The scary part could be that Rosneft takes a hike and doesn't even pay the last payments.

[edka1]

i will stop the debate right here but one last comment - you are wrong. gas monetization is important to Rosneft and they will pay up all they owe. Take some time and read Rosneft reports. I am not here to make a ton - just beat the average market and may be more. any oil found would be a lottery win for me. bye.

[Bob322]

Robnhood queried about moving 10M shares a couple of weeks back. While HRT could have material shareholders under the 5% threshold bailing as new +5% shareholders are coming on board, I anticipate the transfer has more to do with the material change in US/Canadian certificates as the shareholder ownership books are balanced back to Brazil. If anyone has more information on the material transfer of

[robnhood]

Bob322, I have already asked HRT twice about this conversion of shares, but still no reply.  All I know is that TD Waterhouse will sell you any amount of stock you want at 3 or 4 cents premium to the Bovespa quote. They have sold over 25 million shares like that over the last few months on the TSXV, and either them or someone else is doing the same thing on the Pinks.  Hence, I assume

[landmann]

  Hence, I assume , the increase in share float of the GDS. Thanks for banging away on this, right now with daily SP dropping like a rock, it doesn't mean much, but should this rudderless ship hit oil, the $$$$$/no. shares will become critical.

[wallywill]

Petra is paying 1 Billion to HRT in 5 installments over a 2 year period. In 2013 TNK will also be paying for 45% of expenses in the Solimoes. There is also up to 5 Billion US dollars to be paid to HRT when certain milestones have been met. This is in addition to the 1 Billion for the Petra sale. No kidding when there is absurd value here. There has been so much bad press saying that HRT will