Darn! 50 Cent SP! Back in April when the stock was trading for $1.15 I said there's an 80% chance we'd see the SP at $.50 before we saw $2.00. Unfortunately that prediction not only just became true, but we'll see lower prices yet until any positive news becomes true.
Lately there has been some speculation on the combined probability of success of Baobob, Murombe, and Moosehead. These probability figures are based upon D&M's numbers. Correct me if I'm wrong but even if there is oil in any of these spots it does not neccessarily mean that a single drilling will hit oil in any one of them. Yes, I know they can change the direction of the drill so presumedly they are drilling the optimal spots for Baobod and Murombe, but there's still a chance that they could miss whatever oil is down there. HRT is like the gang that couldn't shoot straight. They can't find oil on dry land, who is to think that they can find oil deep under sea? The market is saying loud and clear that it doesn't think HRt will succeed in Namibia.
BTW, some of you that have calculated probabities, your math is incorrect. You should have used an online probabilty calculator (see https://www.calctool.org/CALC/math/probability/3_events , for example).