Interesting take...
According to a US analyst the reason the lumber price is in the doldrums is as follows:
60% of lumber consumption happens in the selling of existing housing in the US
It's either renovate to get it ready to sell or renovate after you bough a fixer upper
Because of current interest rates and the American 30 year fixed rate mortgages people are simply just not moving...they're staying put...moving would mean a doubling of their interest expense.
The guy figured this is not about to change until interest rates drift back down at least a little closer to rates five years ago....then the pain of moving won't be as steep and people will sell/move/upgrade again.