GREY:IPHAF - Post Discussion
Post by
bromley1877 on Nov 02, 2011 2:07pm
Letter to Shareholders
So first the bad news: The near death experience following Roche’s withdrawal and the uveitis delays has essentially set them back a good 2 years or more. They are unlikely to reach market much before 2017 (assuming of course they make it to market at all). More funds will obviously be required and which will likely take the form of a significant dilution far in excess of what has already been experienced. At present share price we are looking at at least tripling the shares out. What this means is that even if things take off and all goes extremely well and we ever reach a company worth of, say, $5B (although actually, IF this gets to market, that is not actually that out of line - but obviously a big IF in there) you might reach a share price of $8 (maybe more if they have a real pipeline of other stuff) which seems pretty modest given that 10 years ago the share price was pushing $6.
But there are also some significant positives here as well. Not only are they not dead yet they in fact have a robust and realistic plan in effect. The biggest shareholder is deep in cash. There is still good reason to feel confident that this drug will take a significant market share. And from 15 cents even $3 a share is a 20 bagger
So I will wait awhile yet before coming back in. But it’s so cheap now I do think I very well might at some point, at least in dribs and drabs.
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