Katanga Mining Ltd Ord KATFF

Glencore just disclosed KAT' expected gross revenue for 2019

[topdop]

Gertler settlement as expected. Great news.

As well, the PR states Gertler is due 2.5% of gross sales paid quarterly.

They tell us what this was historically (2018) and what they expect it to be next year (2019).

From the PR:

"Katanga estimates that the royalties for 2018 will be approximately 10 million per quarter and then for 2019 approximately 16.5 million per quarter. KCC made a pre-payment of royalties to AHIL in 2015, and the current royalties payable are offset against the remaining balance outstanding under such pre-payment. It is expected that the next royalty payment from KCC to Ventora will be in 2019".

...do the math...

These are my views only. Thanks for reading.

[topdop]

** CORRECTION ** Sorry, my mistake: the Royalty is paid "quarterly at a rate of 2.5% of 'net sales' from the KCC mine" rather than gross revenue as I previously stated. It still means we can work out easily the expected "net sales" for KAT for 2019 as disclosed by Glencore. These are my views only. Thanks for reading.

[Gws0623]

Remember, KAT uses conservative Co and Cu prices of $25/lb and $6100/t for 2019 (from Apt 2018 43-101).  Some deductions are allowed. I imagine the big one is State royalties which is still a moving target. This deduction could be anywhere from the old 2% - $80m/yr to 3.5% for Cu and 10% for Co - $270m/yr. 

[Sogosohubidu201]

That will be $4.62 billion Canadian dollars net revenue for KAT in 2019. KAT should earn over $1 per share of net earning 2019. Currrently PE multiples for large copper mining stocks are in the range of 13 to 30. Give a conservative PE=10 for KAT in 2020, KAT could reach minimum $10 share price in 2020.

[easymoola2003]

no one listening it seems

[patels96]

Its not the fact that no one is listening...its just the news came at a very unopportunistic times (when Trump slapped 50 Bil worth of Tariffs, and the markets are reacting negatively).  Cu is down quite a bit, based on the fact that the trade war between the US/China will hurt Chinese demand for Cu. Regardless, Cu is still poised for growth and the DRC is a great place to get Cu at higher

[topdop]

If you watch the BASKETBALL to closely buddy, all you see is "bounce, bounce, bounce...". Whereas if you're smart and wiley enough to look at the GAME, you'll see a SP that has appreciated over +500% in almost a year and a half and market events that will certainly only propel this further in the same direction in YEARS to come. Some choose the BALL, some choose the GAME

[KingKyle]

Great reminder topdog! Your a baller junkie huh!

[internalaudit]

What do you think made KAT shares languished before, besides all the common share dilutions, cobalt and copper pricing, as well as the mining shut down in 2015? Was also it the concern about running a business in the DRC? It seems all these headwinds have been removed, which would mean the reversal of fortunes for those who can be patient. Cobalt replacement in batteries will takes at least

[60606060]

I think people need to get over any uncertaincy they had and a big name buying shares will be a great catalist for SP. $2.20 will soon be here.

[topdop]

Thanks @Sogo... totally agree on your numbers. And it's exactly the outcome I was predicting and awaiting. Why? Nobody else can operate like Glencore (see my Seeking Alpha KAT blog post of 13 Jun 2018, 09:26 AM)... you've just gotta love operating in Africa! https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/31295425-kvn/5043562-katff-huge-undervalued-opportunity-minority-shareholders-independent

[Sogosohubidu201]

My bad. I thought that it was British pound symbol in KAT PR today, but actually it was Euro dollars. Therefore, the net revenue of KCC would be $4.04 billion Canadian dollars. The detailed calculation is listed below:   KAT estimates that royalties for 2019 will be approximately 16.5 million Euro dollars per quarter to Dan Gertler. KCC pays 2.5% royalty rate of net sale to Dan Gertler. &

[Sogosohubidu201]

Don't know KAT's LT commodity prices that were used for royalty calculation in KAT's PR today by Glencore/Katanga. But if I use today's closing prices of $3.138 USD per pound for copper and $81,000 USD per ton for cobalt, KCC net revenue would be $4.48 billions USD or $5.91 billion Canadian dollars. Obviously Glencore/Katanga used lower commority prices for royalty estimation in