Post by
topdop on Nov 22, 2019 4:23pm
Don't go off on a tangent; it's wishful thinking at best...
IMO, you guys are all going off on some nonsensicle idea that some entity might have a go and possibly block Glencore. That is pure fallacy. As I've said before, There may be a few Hedgies and/or Opportunity Funds buying bits and pieces fhere and there for the low entry point and the possible upside, but really, that would be it.
Why? There's no evidence on the tape plus there is a huge gorilla blocking the way. Gklencore.
After this RO, GLEN will hold around (give or take) 99.4% of 61.2BB shares.
So for Glen to be taken below 90% would require 5.8BB shares to be purchased either in the market or allocated through the RO. Tha't a lot of money. Even at 12c.
And note the ENTIRE treasury of KAT before the RO was 1.9BB so just get your head around where exactly anyone might think those 5.8BB shares would come from??
There is absolutly NO MARKET evidence of anyone acquiring KAT shares at all. Volumes in advance of the RO announcement were anaemic; volumes after the RO was announced have been anaemic ( +16MM on the one day; less so since) and the KAT.RT shares have ONE TRADE for 300 Rights shares since they listed. A dead duck.
Also to think CIBC might be accumulating for or on behalf of KAT is ridiculous. KAT is broke. The BoD of KAT would never sanction such a thing. It's a GLEN controlled BoD.
And the Indepenndent Committee would never be afforded such a mandate. You're all smoking something. CIBC would (only) have managed a "market stabilization programme" in and around the RO announcements, but that's (probably) all.
And the Prop Desks? Maybe. But likely not. It's too risky. The timeline for a "pop" is too long (+ 30 months IMO) and AT ANY TIME, GLENCORE could simply swoop in and stop the party and swallow up the 0.6% it doesn't already own. No. That uncertainty presents a massive impediment to a Prop Desk IMO.
I have outlined my thoughts on what the future holds and I could be no more correct than anyone else. But I know how BoDs work. And I know the US DoJ will want its pound of flesh too. Their investigations are directly concerned with DRC and therfore KAT. Glassenberg is a dead man walking and the GLEN BoD will let him "retire" with full pension yada yada yada because he will take the fall and Glencore will pay the fine.
THEN, and only then, might Glen clean up the Treasury and make us all go away. KAT's future is now connected to the GLEN/US DoJ case.
That's my 2c... good luck to all, whichever way your pecker points.
These are my views only. Thanks for reading.
PS: "Glencore is holding an investor update on December 3, where CEO Ivan Glasenberg is expected to reveal more about the turnaround plan for the company's loss-making Africa copper operations." - Mining Journal
I suggest everyone tunes in because that Presser will be more relevant than all of our combined speculation(s).