1) China is the largest producer of vanadium with some 68,000 Mtv
produced in 2023. Most of China vanadium is a by-product of steel production using titaniferous magnetite. As such any decline in China steel production would also result in a decrease in the country’s vanadium supply (less production of steel less supply of vanadium).
2) China also leads the world in the consumption of vanadium mainly for making high strength steel used in construction. The new 2024 quality standards are aiming at promoting / regulating high strength steel, as such they will help push the consumption of vanadium up (more high strength steel, more demand for vanadium).
3) According to the China Vanadium Association the new 2024 standards will add between 30 yuan (US$4.15) and 50 yuan (US$6.90) per ton to production costs which is not much of a cost increase when compared with what happened in 2018. The 2018 rebar standards which set out specifications for high strength steels used in construction increased production costs by approximately 300 yuan (US$41.30) per ton. However, the 2018 standards have not been strictly enforced especially for small steelmakers as the construction industry is still able to utilise lower quality rebar thus contributing to vanadium prices falling back to record low of ~US$5/lb in China.
4) In conclusion I believe that the new 2014 standards together with the 2018's currently in place, if properly enforced by Chinese regulators, will eliminate the use of inferior steels in construction thus helping vanadium consumption to increase, hopefully enough to create a supply deficit.