Laurion Mineral Exploration Inc. LMEFF

New Basement Price!

[Smitty64]

Alright folks, it’s time to do a little math for the new BASEMENT price.

Step 1: We’re looking at the f*cking facts, none of these “what-ifs” and “but we have so much land, yatta yatta”. We are looking at what is DOCUMENTED AND PROVEN

Step 2: OBVIOUSLY the USCG .pdf posted yesterday is legitimate

Step 3: The .pdf states AFTER 2 ROUND OF DUE DILIGENCE (thanks Doug) that there is an estimated 2.5million GEOs. NOT 5 million which @goldenI and myself based our previous basement napkin math on, definitely NOT 10 million (which has been the buzz word here for years). AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE HAS BEEN 2.5M GEOs – so that’s what we’re going off of. [Hell, one day I want to be 6’5 but I’ll have to settle with my proven 5’10 self!! (if a PE firm wants to come in and spend the money on me to fly to Turkey to get some height stretching procedures, THEY can prove I’m 6’5 and will reap all the rewards ;) ]

Step 4: THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY AN OPERATIONAL MINE. Therefore, we are deemed a “Teir 2” resource. We need to sacrifice price, lets go with 50% (thank you Gogo - reminder "basement") to account for the fact that if acquired, major investment must be made into order to bring us to an “operating state.” Whoever thinks we are getting the same treatment/rate as Great Bear Resources is out to lunch – they brought their mine very close operating status – we are YEARS + MILLIONS of dollars away form that.

Step 5: Look at TIER 2 COMPARABLES and the price per ounce that was paid to acquire. Therefore, we are looking at Osisko at ~ $350 USD/oz. However, since we are finding the BASEMENT price, let’s also bring that to $300usd to be safe

Step 6: We do the math for Laurion:
 
2.5million GEOs x $300USD/oz = $750 million / 267.5million fully diluted shares =
$2.80USD/share  = $3.84CAD/share
You can decide if you want to divide that amount by 2 of not. For the sake of this post, I will just to show the (absolute) basement figure:
$1.92CAD/share
__________________
And at $350usd per oz:
2.5million GEOs x $350USD = $875 million / 267.5million fully diluted shares =
$3.27USD/share  = $4.48CAD/share
You can decide if you want to divide that amount by 2 of not. For the sake of this post, I will just to show the basement figure::
$2.24CAD/share
_______________
I don’t know about you guys but I want to get tf out of this thing. No, I’m not selling me shares, just let’s get a 5x-10x bagger from where we are TODAY and let us all get on with our lives
 
As always would love to hear: @goldenI, @Lambos, @DAM$, @Fatlas, etc etc etc thoughts. Also, any ideas on when a deal will actually take place?

[GoldenBull999]

gimme $3 cad + and lets roll

[LTMG2500]

That's the most realistic math I've seen to date. Thanks Smitty64

[Neil68]

Thanks Smitty64, Good analysis, and I can not disagree. However, how is it obvious that the USCG pdf is legitimate?

[Nuggetz]

IMO t the document is false IMO 5 million GEO plus IMO 6-8 USD share 

[Smitty64]

If it was fake Doug would have flagged that, instead he accepted it and made a post about it. 

[Nuggetz]

Can any one  find this document on USCG ?

[fatlas]

Doug confirmed its legitimacy - and not every legitimate document in existence is posted on a website. Seems to me to this was sourced from someone with access to the document - perhaps a USCG employee - maybe a potential investor.  It's real. Let's move on. 

[Anthony13]

Interesting theory about USGC being the potential buyer ..... could be seems like when you think you put some of the pieces of together there is always another possibility.

[fatlas]

From the US Capital website: US Capital Global Wealth Management, US Capital Global Investment Management, US Capital Global Securities, US Capital Global Realty, and Corporate Finance are all now under the US Capital brand. This company is a conglomerate of all types of financial services firms - advising inidividiauk clients - investing their money - building products

[GoldBelt]

If it's only 2.5M oz after 20 years of work on the site after talk of 10M oz from the ceo....this is a HUGE disappointment.  There's numerous properties for sale with over 5M PROVEN OZ in North America. 2.5M isn't enough to attract a significant premium or buyer considering other more attractive properties...so let's hope that number is actually MUCH higher. If I

[Smitty64]

THIS is what I'm worried about. 10m would have suitors lining up and rolling up their sleeves. Why should we be certain that an acquisition will even happen when we have 25% of that? As @GoldBelt mentioned, we definitely are not the only junior property to in North America to offer these findings…

[Pasta86]

I'd also like to add the document states 2.5m oz of gold and not specifically GEOs. So it may not take into consideration the silver, copper, and zinc metals. Minor thing that may or may not change your napkin math. 

[Planthouse]

We've already discussed previously along with goldenl about Tier 2 assets. You've actually made an assessment of a basement price I sort of agree with, but we should go about it differently.  LME is a Tier 2 asset and wouldn't fetch a price of $300-$350/oz since they aren't near production. A better comparison than Osisko would be Orion (Greenstone), where they were bought

[GoldenBull999]

well, we're pinned to .38-40 and Cynthias linkedin is claiming LME is the next 10 bagger....thats probably what we can expect so these $3-5 guesses are probably going to be the outcome.