Post by
Tar005 on Oct 08, 2020 11:59am
Sellers ?
I am surprised to see that there are still sellers at this 'low' price while waiting for news from the FDA. I consider anything below USD11.50 low ( as they are below the rights issue price).
The volume spiked up quite a bit this week, which implies there were sellers (unless the shares were shorted?). Anyway, I have been accumulating more shares under USD 10 (all my bid orders at USD 9.70 were filled and only a few hundred share at USD 9.60 were filled and the rest remain open)
I really dont expect the shares to spike until we hear from the FDA and that would take a few months.
I am not sure I understand the reasoning of some which says that TV wants to drive the shares to zero or that there are big expectation of dilutions as in the past. Remember that TV (et al) owns 85% of the issued shares which means driving it to zero a total loss for them too and I dont think they have done what they have done so far to write off their investment in LMNL. If TV decides on dilution to raise cash for LMNL , they will end up investing 85% or more of the cash raised if they want to keep the same/similar % holdings with a lower share price. So I cant see how this can/will be attractive to them.
For those who say that TV has done so in the past and will be just as likely to do the same again, I would like to say it is not the same. TV did not own any shares before so yes, the 'old' shareholders (which include me) were screwed royally (for lack of better words) but now that the retail investors/shareholders only own 15% of the issued shares, whatever TV decides to do will affect them way more than the remaining retail shareholders.
The most likelihood if TV believes enough in LMNL (to do what they did in 2019) to own 85% , they will simply fund LMNL at 10% or more interest (I believe they charged 12% in the past) until they can 'cash' in on Ryplazim and eventually complete the small molecules and double or triple on their investments.
PLI (as it used to be) did not have that option until they ran out of money and TV simply swooped it all.
So far, LMNL Management has not indicated they need to raise more funds short term. In fact they implied that they are ok short term and given themselves 6 to 18 months to monetize what their research.
With respect to KG salary, I agree that he is way overpaid for a company the size of LMNL as it is currently. BUT I also believe that TV would not have agreed to pay him that amount if they did not believe he will be able to accomplish the goals set. (Remember 85% of his salary eventually comes out of TV's pocket as shareholder) We have already seen that TV is not shy about letting go of people that does not perform (in TV's mind).
Conclusion: The shares of LMNL are not performing because there are no interested 'buyers or investors' currently UNTIL LMNL can show it will achieve the goals set in the next 6 to 18 months.
(Still surprise me that there are sellers though unless they are the ones who have found a better opportunity for their money. Otherwise expect the money to be tied up for 6 to 18 months before being able to cash in. As an investor who has waited for years , I am certainly willing to wait 6 to 18 months and will continue to accumulate whenever I feel is undervalued )