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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Mart Resources Inc MAUXF

OTCPK:MAUXF - Post Discussion

Mart Resources Inc > Upgrade of CPF presages large increase in Producti
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Post by TheRock07 on Jun 30, 2012 8:19am

Upgrade of CPF presages large increase in Producti

Recently, Mart increased the capacity of the Umusadege early production processing facility from approximately 20,000 bopd to an  aggregate capacity of 30,000 barrels.

Further expansion  to 35,000 bpd is now nearly completed.

The upgrading not only increases processing capacity, but also replaces rental storage equipment with permanent equipment that will decrease operating costs per barrel.

 

The central processing facility is also  readily expandable for further future expansion, if required.

In light of the UMU-9 discovery, an additional expansion of the permanent central production facility is being considered.

In addition, to mitigate risks relating to export pipeline capacity and to increase that capacity, Mart and its co-venturers are expanding their current pipeline to 21,000 bpd from 11,000 bpd and that capacity will be increased by another 35,000 bpd by Q1/13 when a new pipeline will be finished that will gain acess to Royal Shells export facilities.

 

In other words, pipeline and central storage facilities are being increased 3-4 fold for 2013.

 

A major reason for this is the UMU-9 well discovery which  has demonstrated  substantial upside potential of the field, in particular the extension to the east. UMU-9 flowed at 11,500 bpd from just 5 of the 19 zones that were present.

UMU-10 which will spud any day now, will be a step-out from UMU-9 and should provide further confirmation of the east extension while further boosting reserves and production gains.

 

Mart is also considering the next logical step, in its ramp up of production.

 

I refer to horizontal wells.

Horizontal wells increase production by an average factor of 2.5 times, relative to vertical wells.

 

Put these expansionary moves into prospective, it becomes obvious that over the next year, field production is going to triple from current levels of about 12,000 bpd.

 

Based on $100 Brent price ( Mart gets a slight premium to Brent ), Mart will cash flow about $1.40 per share for its share of this expanded production.

 

With no debt, a strong balance sheet, and capable of longer=term gains in production while paying a fat dividend, Mart should  be accorded a cash flow multiple of 8-10 times annual cash flows.

 

For these reasons, it becomes obvious that Mart is extremely under-valued at current prices and that the longer term appreication in share price has really just begun.

 

Indeed, if the EU proceeds along the current path of fixing the Euro and given that oil has traded lower recently due to the flight to the USD , the longer term decline in the USD should see a strong rebound in the price of oil, perhaps to levels above $150.

 

All good reasons to hold your investment here.

Comment by goldennugget24 on Jun 30, 2012 8:51am
Thanks TheRock7, can you post a link to this.
Comment by Jesse15 on Jun 30, 2012 11:06am
well done Rock  .., thanks
Comment by TheRock07 on Jun 30, 2012 12:53pm
Mart's production is not constrained by well productivity or reserves. Rather, it has been the CPF capacity ( now mostly rectified) and export pipeline capacity that has capped production potential. The recent aggrement with Royal Shell ( see June 21 NR ) for access to their 35,000 bpd export pipeline means that more export capacity ( which is needed given the recent success of the UMU-9 well ...more  
Comment by Bobwins on Jun 30, 2012 3:18pm
good recap but I didn't see anyone question your Q1 2013 date for all these miraculous production increases.   Based on previous drilling timetables and the fact that Mart still doesn't have the full go ahead from Shell to build the connecting pipeline, I would classify their chances of pumping oil to Shell in Q1 2013 as remote to slim.  Maybe they sign with Shell in the next few ...more  
Comment by hangemhigh4 on Jun 30, 2012 3:34pm
Yea I agree also to that. Will take longer than Q1 2013.  Mabey Q2 or Q3 before pipeline up and running. But its good that the Shell agreement is signed for a pipeline  coming. Things do take longer there but till then we will still have increased crude sold and Im hoping higher Bonny prices for increased revenues. Check Bonny today. Up quite abit. I dont believe crude will go much lower ...more  
Comment by Jesse15 on Jun 30, 2012 3:42pm
 what I heard at the AGM was land access access arrangements are  60 + % complete.. i also heard actual construction of the new line will only 3-4 months and i heard Shell completion is imminent ( referenced the time it takes for Shell PR approval taking time) i also heard new well spud announcement within a couple of weeks (max)  ... thats what i heard  ... so ...more  
Comment by JustforFun7 on Jun 30, 2012 3:45pm
Yes Bob, I think your sense of timing is closer to reality but I also think  construction is  going to be faster than I thought. Originally,  they said 12+ months to build the pipeline with most of that  time coming from having to get right of way. The actual build is much less than this. The pipeline is going 8-10 feet in the ground  covered with 18 inches of concrete. Q1 ...more  
Comment by charliebunky on Jun 30, 2012 4:56pm
Bobwins...agree the Q1 timetable is probably a little too optunistic...but what about the $1.40 c/f...do you feel this is possible w/i a year??? would be great...if not what do you feel is possible??? Thank you   BOH CharlieB
Comment by TheRock07 on Jul 01, 2012 8:54am
The calculations are elementary.   A quick analyses can be computed from Q1/12 financial indices.Funds flow from production operations was $55.0-million (16 cents per share) for Q1 2012 at a received price of $115 per barrel.   Annualized, thats a cash flow of about  .64 per share.   When production triples, annual cash flows will become $1.92 per share.   Allow for $105 ...more  
Comment by charliebunky on Jul 01, 2012 9:08am
Rock...i thank you for the response...very much appreciated...     boh CharlieB