Mart Resources Inc MAUXF

A post from IV

[bakken13]

I took profit (again) on a big chunk of MMT. Below's why.

 

Let’s look at the catalysts:

1. UMU 10: bottom sand gave excellent results on which we got this rise, the other sands will be fairly in line with other drill results and w/o a pipe-line it’s pretty superfluous. The best (reserve related) news has come out of UMU 10 on this NR
2. Bigger pipe-allowance: possible, but let’s say we go to 8k net. Including pipe-line disruptions this will give roughly $0,50 cf p/s with a 3-4 cf multiplier gives $1,50-$2,00. Guess what the range we’ve been trading in
3. We just got the divvy – if I really want it I can get back in closer to date and avoid the risk
4. Shell pipe-line deal – by now everyone believes it will come, not sure this will give a big pop. It’s important but the actual rise will be when the pipe-line is done
5. Who believes the pipeline is done in June? I don’t.
6. But let’s say it does, reality is the tax will kick in pretty soon after that so even if we produce 35 k (17.5 k net) it won’t be the same ratio cf as we now get with the tax shield and at 3-4x cf we’ll still have $2,20 - $ 2,80 sp target
7. Reserves? - Even if they up reserves to 100 mln 2P (vs. current 19.2 mln 2 P), with a $ 10 attribution to 2P (Very high measured against recent acquisitions!!) and 50 mln 2P net you get to around $ 1,40 sp - and that's with a quintupling of reserves. Calculating a doubling or trippling of 2P at these prices gives a sobering picture.
8. Then Marginal field you say? Fantastic! I am sure we’ll get a pop but then we have the Nigerian waiting game to get the field in production. I am sure I’ll be able to get in after the dust settles, with this knowledge at a decent price  
9. Adding of RIG’s: interesting but cf from RIG’s part from drilling on own fields is not going to make the difference in my view. It will help but I think it’s healthy to have a show me attitude in Nigeria

 

No. All things considered I’d rather trade between $1,50-$2,00. This is my second $ 0,35 cent divvy trading trip and I only just missed a 3^rd one earlier. Big money. Low risk.

[billythekidd]

If you think you can time the dips good for you.....but you run the risk of being left on the sidelines if Mart Breaks the 52 week high...... If you think a signed Shell Deal wont be a major move on the Share price i say think that over again...Just look at the Move since Dec 24 th after production resumed and results from one zone on Umu 10....You dont need to be a Math professor to

[joelou]

For those who have been on the board and know me this post exactly illustrates my feelings towards Mart ... I believe Mart will one day be taken out and and those who have accumulated over the years will be handsomely rewarded.   I will add to my already over allotted position and continue to add with the quarterly divvy... Just one note -- the Cormark guys are "well informed" and

[Resilience]

I am not a big believer in MMT getting acquired, I think much more value would be unlocked with another Marginal field program and raising the divvy in the future.   But let's say they will be and apply recent acquisition prices. Even if the field will be 100 mln 2P (which I believe it can be), so 50 2 P net at those metrics with current acquisition prices being $2,5 to max $4 per barrel

[rxdoc]

Interesting thought....I would have put the number at 5-10 x EBIDA....or about $2.50-$5.00/share.