Mart Resources Inc MAUXF

Post Umugini financial performance

[mjh9413]

Last qtr ~8,000 boepd resulted in $33MM cash flow at ~$110 average realised price. So, taking a potential of 16,000 boepd  as a marker (as we have less lost oil and increasing flows of oil from field) at a $70 realised price should give about $45MM to $48MM cash flow on same share count. So,immediately  running faster to compensate for lower price this is a position that not many oil companies are in...facing a drastic price collapse we have a unique positive occurring in this company...and with Notore and its existing co-venturers, with both gas and oil, pioneer tax status on the new field, and all its reserve and prodn potential, at these levels MMT IS a steal. But JMHO

[righand2]

How do you come up with that result? $33 million of cash flow at 8000boed means they got about $45/bbl netbacks. Subtract $40, and what do you get?

[neugrufti]

You do know that netback isn't a flat calculation, so you don't just see a $40 drop in realized price and subtract $40 from the nebtack, right?

[mjh9413]

The easiest way to define the benefit of more oil flowing (and less lost oil) to the export terminals is to say, okay, 8,000 boepd cost $28MM in the qtr and since the increase to 16,000 has only marginal increase on costs (mainly because real average daily prodn capability is already 12,000 boepd and MMT is ready to open flows from exisiting wells), that cost is spread amongst twice the level of

[vestor111]

It is difficult to say where and how long things will "stablize".      Tight Oil in the US is largely over leveraged which is hammering the junk credit market - which will dry up capital needed to roll forward production with more drilling.  November drilling permits were reportedly off 40%.    Tight Oil depletion rates are epic.   So between depletion