MB is back on track big time with the current operating raio.
let me break it down to you boys and girls, in the toys manufacturing business, operating ratio is the key.
MB is back on track big time with the current EBIT margin (19%) at 128M sales level, this is an amazing number, which means cogs/sales at 58%, other operating expenses/sales at 22.8%. This is a level where MB can make good money.
excluding all the one time items, q1 2010 EBIT is a loss at -20; however, with all that restrucuring going on, we can't blame them. q4 2010 sales are likely to be on par with the q3 sale, based on historical peformance from 2001-2005, 2006-2009 q4 sales were lower than q3 due to recall/other issues, which shouldn't be used as indicator.
all that being said, q4 sales will likely be on par/better than q3 sales, at the current operating ratios, MB is likely to make same/better EBIT in q4. add q2 to q4 EBIT up, and kick out q1 loss and give it a 0 EBIT for q1 2011 just like 2001-2006; we will get a 55.5 EBIT for 12 months to q1 2011; minus the interest expense, which is said to be 21,that's 35 million for the 12 month period, which is an awesome number.
divide 35M by 571M fully diluted shares outstanding, that's 0.06 per share; give it a multiple of 15, that's 0.91$ for the stock, which is a very reasonable value considering the curernt operating ratios.
so here you go, i assume that's how one of the analyst (johnson gerrick) came up with his estimation, which is 0.99.