Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum MEG Energy Corp MEGEF

Primary Symbol: T.MEG

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

MEG Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company focused on in-situ thermal oil production in the southern Athabasca oil region of Alberta, Canada. The Company is engaged in the development of enhanced oil recovery projects that utilize steam-assisted gravity drainage extraction methods to improve the economic recovery of oil. It transports and sells thermal oil (AWB) to customers throughout... see more

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TSX:MEG - Post Discussion

MEG Energy Corp > Q3 not as Bad as it looked

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Post by Fuzman5902 on Oct 07, 2024 1:29pm

Q3 not as Bad as it looked

WTI in the $ 74 range.

Differential in the $12.50 range

Premium in USGC $ 1.5 guess on my part.

Assuming No debottlenecking capital spent.

1350 - 450 = 900 /4 = $ 225 M a quarter

75-74 = 1 X 31 /4 = 8 rounded up

$ 16.25- $ 12.50 = 3.75 x 47 / 4 = 44.06

Finally for the heck of it add $ 13.5 for the USGC Premium

Potential FCF for the quarter

225 - 8 + 44 + 13.5 = $ 274.5 M not to shabby

Narrowing of differential make a huge difference this quarter.

Fuz

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Comment by ztransforms173 on Oct 07, 2024 1:42pm

Variable Range 2024 AFF Sensitivity(1)(2) - C$mm WCS Differential (US$/bbl) +/- US$1.00/bbl +/- C$47mm WTI (US$/bbl) +/- US$1.00/bbl +/- C$31mm Bitumen Production (bbls/d) +/- 1,000 bbls/d +/- C$16mm Condensate (US$/bbl) +/- US$1.00/bbl +/-C$14mm Exchange Rate (C$/US$) +/- $0.01 +/- C$10mm Non-Energy Opex (C$/bbl) +/- C$0.25/bbl +/- C$6mm AECO Gas(3) (C$/GJ) +/- C$0.50/GJ +/- C$6mm (1 ...more

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