Glacierman has quite rightly expressed some concern about Shell's retrenchment in shale oil. They are selling properties and focusing on the best play. In this regard, here is what Conoco thinks are the best plays as demonstrated by its capital spending allociations. Notice that there are 5 plays they are targeting for
exploration and appraisal. Of these three are in Canada and two are the Devonian age plays: Canol and Duvernay.
In unconventional exploration, capital will be targeted toward liquids-rich shale plays in the Lower 48 and Canada. Exploration and appraisal activity will focus on the Niobrara and Permian in the Lower 48, and the Canol, Duvernay and Montney plays in Canada.
With regards to development drilling, the majority of spending will be spend on the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara.
Approximately two-thirds of development drilling program funds will be spent in the Lower 48, primarily targeting development in the liquids-rich, unconventional plays in the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara, as well as conventional and unconventional plays in the Permian.
In short, the Canol is one of Conoco's priority exploration plays. As discussed in an earlier post, I think the Canol is bigger than the Duvernay. Both the Duvernay and Canol are in the appraisal stage, but the Duvernay is much further ahead and closer to production. I think we will see small (50,000 bopd) production from the Canol within 3 years which will fill the existing Enbridge pipelline. Full scale production could ramping up within 5 years when they convert the existing Enbridge pipeline to NGL and build a new oil pipeline. Remember that the MVP is a joint project between Conoco, Imperial and Shell. All have major interests in the Canol.