Alterra Power MGMXD

Guidance For 2016 and 2017

[BoldForbes]

Well, I don't recall ever receiving guidance from the company looking out 2 years.

For the 2016 and 2017, management expects the Company to achieve (net interest):

	2016		2017
Generation (GWh)	1,610		1,706
Total revenue	92,062		100,496
Adjusted EBITDA	40,721		48,328

Still digesting, but if we can hold the same p/s of ~3.8 then you get a stock price increase of ~52% for this year; perhaps profitability will give a higher valuation a P/E of 8 on 2016 earnings would be a stock increase of ~42%.

I used simplistic calculates looking at current company value of C$229.64M and comparing the projected revenue and profit to this.

[(Projected Revenue x current p/s) - Current Market Value] / Current Market Value

[(92.062 x 3.8 = 349.83) - 229.64 = 120.20] / 229.64 = ~52%

[(Projected Profit x P/E) - Current Market Value] / Current Market Value
[(40.721 x 8 = 325.77) - 229.64 = 96.13] / 229.64 = ~42%

Perhaps the P/E will be higher due to a "growing" company.  

At first glance it looks like it's worth sticking around for another year or two.

I am in it for the long mile,

Bold Forbes

[materialsgirl]

Bold Forbes; You wrote a good post. For a long time, the company has been talking about being a $100m company in terms of revenue. Now at last, we will be there by Q3 2016 according to guidance We seem to be doing many things right but we should all agree that the recent 5 year history is dreadful in terms of returns on equity.  Just doing lots of exciting things and losing money all the

[RDK241t]

Well said Mat and I agree. I wish someone would communicate that exact message to the management team at the investor conference call. I really think the company needs fresh blood to carry this company forward. 

[BoldForbes]

Mat, Thanks for your response!  I have enjoyed your posts and your balance to the board.   You make a good point, in that, the person you go to the dance with, you might not dance with; or go home with. Although, I hope that management has been learning from mistakes the past several years to incorporate that knowledge into future projects; at some point new leadership may be required

[materialsgirl]

The only real reason for the 2016 and 2017 guidance is that long term investors are all totally fed up with horrible performance and execution. Many investors complain about mediocre performance of management.  We only wish that we had mediocre performance and a $1 share price.  In the case of AXY mediocre would be considered aspirational.     I know that top management is