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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Kontrol Technologies Corp N.KNR

Alternate Symbol(s):  KNRLF

Kontrol Technologies Corp. is a provider of energy management, continuous air quality and emission solutions to commercial and industrial consumers. It delivers building intelligence through the Internet of things (IoT), software and cloud technology as well as project integration. Its smart technology is deployed to customers through a cloud-based interface accessible on desktops and mobile... see more

NEO:KNR - Post Discussion

Kontrol Technologies Corp > The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb
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Post by midok220 on Jan 01, 2021 4:43pm

The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb

Anew variant of the coronavirus is spreading across the globe. It was first identified in the United Kingdom, where it is rapidly spreading, and has been found in multiple countries. Viruses mutate all the time, often with no impact, but this one appears to be more transmissible than other variants—meaning it spreads more easily. Barely one day after officials announced that America’s first case of the variant had been found in the United States, in a Colorado man with no history of travel, an additional case was found in California.

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There are still many unknowns, but much concern has focused on whether this new variant would throw off vaccine efficacy or cause more severe disease—with some degree of relief after an initial study indicated that it did not do either. And while we need more data to feel truly reassured, many scientists believe that this variant will not decrease vaccine efficacy much, if at all. Health officials have started emphasizing the lack of evidence for more severe disease. All good and no cause for alarm, right? Wrong. A more transmissible variant of COVID-19 is a potential catastrophe in and of itself. If anything, given the stage in the pandemic we are at, a more transmissible variant is in some ways much more dangerous than a more severe variant. That’s because higher transmissibility subjects us to a more contagious virus spreading with exponential growth, whereas the risk from increased severity would have increased in a linear manner, affecting only those infected. RECOMMENDED READING A road meanders through a field of syringes, which look like trees, toward a giant virus, which looks like a setting sun. Where Year Two of the Pandemic Will Take Us ED YONG Two children look out a window It’s Time to Hunker Down ZEYNEP TUFEKCI High-school students socially distance in Greece. This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic ZEYNEP TUFEKCI Increased transmissibility can wreak havoc in a very, very short time—especially when we already have uncontrolled spread in much of the United States. The short-term implications of all this are significant, and worthy of attention, even as we await more clarity from data. In fact, we should act quickly especially as we await more clarity—lack of data and the threat of even faster exponential growth argue for more urgency of action. If and when more reassuring data come in, relaxing restrictions will be easier than undoing the damage done by not having reacted in time.
From the January/February 2021 issue: How science beat the virus To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.
Comment by yearninyank on Jan 02, 2021 6:52pm
Thank you for the important post!  I am a public school employee here in the US and have shared this  with our Board and my Union chapter president. I usually "get' things but I had not considered the implication of the increased transmissability - until now. The author lays it out very clearly. Deadlier is not deadlier, more transmissable is. Holy ICU Batman! This is going to ...more  
Comment by Trusted91 on Jan 02, 2021 7:12pm
The government needs to mobilize and get these units in all schools and long term care facilities as well as at the airports or in the planes(longer term)
Comment by JohnFriesen on Jan 03, 2021 10:46am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by Trusted91 on Jan 03, 2021 12:13pm
Well stated and couldn’t have said it better myself 
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