Hi all. I discovered this little company through an interview with the CEO of Kontrol, posted on a small cap (micro cap?) stock investor site, in October.
The surprisingly good vaccine news on November 9th (BioNTech/Pfizer) required re-evaluation of how much BioCloud could be worth. But it's far from worthless!
Let's assume the technology is legit (I give it at least 99% odds it's the real deal). Any company that can develop a technology like that, must have real value! Buying-up smart minds like that would easily be worth $50-$100m as a package, I figure. There's our floor. Do we really care about their IOT/ HVAC business? Seems like a commodity business and I'm not inclined to become knowledgable enough to value that. It's fair to say we're here because of the BioCloud.
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Some contra/pro points. We need to look at both sides here.
Why would a business get the BioCloud, if they can just have their employees vaccinated? We used to not worry about breathing the same air as others before the pandemic. Wouldn't we expect things to just go back to normal now?
- The pandemic has been such a major event (more than half a million Americans dead!!!) and habit-changing, that even with 95% reliable vaccine, do you really feel SAFE in an office setting or a restaurant, movie theater, concert, etc? If you're young, yeah, probably. But what about exposure to elders? Family get-togethers? Lasting longterm health effects?
Would a restaurant really invest in a BioCloud, if ignorance is bliss? Motivated reasoning will lead business owners to not feel responsible and it's hard to proove anyway, that guests caught the virus at your facility. If you have the BioCloud, you'd be required to interrupt diners mid-meal, allow them to not pay for their half-eaten meals.
- However, restaurants with BioClouds would have a clear advantage vs others, in attracting family get-togethers or large dinner parties. Once people become aware of a device that checks for the virus, of course they'd welcome a safe place, even if they just got the latest vaccine update!
Schools: Why, why, why haven't we had any news on installed pilot projects yet? At this point, they should have BioClouds in several classrooms, so they have a chance of a successful detection, which would then become local news and perhaps even be picked up by US-news! This would be MAJOR! It could snowball from there! Parents in all kinds of school districts would likely make themselves heard! They'd like the peace of mind, when their kids come home, that they can visit grandma no problem!
On the CEO.ca forum and twitter I've seen some Paul Ghezzi fanboy action. As soon as people are invested, they are biased towards success (ownership bias/confirmation bias) and thus it's easy to attribute good qualities to the figure-head of the investment. It's hard to judge sb's character from a few interviews/tweets. Paul seems honest and neither overly hyping nor the opposite. Kind of just right.
However, there has been a lack of communication and the unerwhelming, amateurish videos of the BioCloud in action (zooming-in on still images until you can see pixels... ehhh) didn't help in building excitement.
------------ However...
The big, big counter to all the contra arguments: COVID, unfortunately, is likely to be a new reality for some time. It's not going to be over 2021. The virus variants and the shockingly large percentage of pupulation that behaves like fools will make it an ongoing struggle. How often will people require vaccination renewals? If you let it slide like a dentist appointment, you become an unaware potential virus spreader...
BioCloud could still become a major hit. Just picture how quickly news programs in North America (even internationally!) would pick up a story, where a wall-mounted box noticed the virus present and successul back-tracing was immediately done, preventing a superspreading event!
Governments could realize the value, as BioClouds would greatly help eradicate the virus! It would be worth... billions to find these situations quickly!
I could also see, from one day to the next, a major news item, where a large company (let's say Microsoft or Google!) orders thousands of units. They can easily afford it and they want their workers to feel comfortable and safe when they come to the office, like in the old days!
-------- And now?
It's a very difficult to value situation, given the information we have. Neither Paul nor we know if BioCloud will sell a couple hundred units or possibly hundreds of thousands.
The longer it takes to hear any sales numbers, the lower the odds. Kontrol might simply not have management with the right experience and connections to seriously promote a BioCloud. It's puzzling why we haven't had way more pilot projects announced. Get 100 free-of-charge units out there, with the only requirement, that publicity is welcomed should a detection event happen! We need news programs to pick it up!