Post by
Sledd66 on Apr 25, 2020 10:31am
Analyzing Q4 and Q1
The only major impact was the temporary vape ban in Massachusetts. Tilt put out a letter to shareholders early October saying that Massachusetts was only 2% of its vape sales. They also announced the forfeiture of the 60 mil stock compensation in the same period. Remember the vape crisis began in summer and become major headlines late August and throughout September which was part of Q3, yet tilt still put up 46 mil revenue and positive EBITDA. During Q4, Tim Condor was named to the board of directors and blackbird integrated with baker bringing together a larger footprint with over 2000 brands accessible. The Q3 earnings showed us 70% growth in Jupiter quarter over quarter despite the vape crisis that should of effected August and September numbers but did not. Commonwealth had a 220% growth quarter over quarter as well. The Q3 report showed us they already closed 25mil of the 35mil shareholder backed financing and a few days later the final 10mil was announced as being oversubscribed from the offering was also closed. As the vape epidemic ran its course, October still being a rough month but by mid November the government was zeroing in on the cause. By December, the vape epidemic was already behind us with its peak effect being Sept to October splitting the impact on two separate quarters. Moving into Q1 we seen blackbirdgo.com created, Jupiter launch new products, mark scatterday becoming fulltime CEO, in ohio biomass was purchased and successfully grown into cannabis product and is finalizing its market strategy, in Taunton Massachusetts tilt is finalizing its certification of occupancy with an additional 50000 sqft packaging space, and we had an announcement that Tilt anticipated chinese new years and planned ahead with larger purchases which actually came into play not because of the new year but because china shut down for coronavirus instead. As the rest of the world shut down, blackbird dropped jaws with a single tweet implying they cannot keep up with demand and would not be able to honor the guarenteed delivery time frames. Later we learned blackbird business orders increased 600% over night. This announcement came as tilt slid to a market cap of 38mil (8 mil below the previous quarters revenue). There was a lawsuit around Christmas time for marketing tactics but just last week tilt has been removed from being named in the lawsuit as it moved its focus to the advertising company instead. So ...lots of good stuff to look forward to. Bottom line, vape epidemic will have some effect on the Q4 numbers but i don't think it will be as much as we think. I think the other businesses within tilt have been slowly forming and contributing to the numbers. Not nearly as much as Jupiter does but maybe enough to cover any loss from the vape epidemic. Q3 surprised us and was also part of the vape epidemic. Just my 2 cents anyway.