Indiva Ltd NDVAF

Wanna

[Bronson123]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/10/15/canopy-growth-buys-edibles-maker-wana-for-298-million.html

[nedstar71]

He's apparently leaning on Canada's numbers to get Wana to the #1 brand in "North America", as apparently it isn't #1 in the U.S. by itself. Canopy really should scoop this up now. Throw a bid of $120 million and see what sticks. $120 million for what will be $40 million in yearly revs already and growing seems too cheap but I think 85 cents a share would pass easily at this

[Stuboo]

There have been many blunders on the way on the part of management. I'd sell for a buck a hate right now

[caretired1]

If I was canopy I would buy out the sundial equity position to get inside this business and determine a take out price ,if there is one 

[Stuboo]

Smart I didn't think about that

[Stuboo]

Would probably be a better partner as well. Sundial killed us with the selling, who would ever want to do business with them?

[VacationReady]

I'm curious about a few things... 1. What a potential early contract termination with Wana would cost Canopy 2. Timing of the early warrant redemption and when the final participation rate will be published 3. With Sundial already holding millions of shares, could Canopy be behind the recent higher volume, just speculators or is Bruce Campbell loading up? With insiders dumping that much money

[MacLovin]

Yes - they could throw a bid of $0.85 or $120 Million and see if it sticks or they can pay the 'break fee' which is probably $20 Million or so (and probably decreases as time goes on) - they don't inherent an ugly balance sheet, no skeletons in the closet like Sundial, could move the production to one their many larger and more modern facilities they have that are sitting vacant and

[caretired1]

Interesting perspective but canopy can do nothing here until a permissive event in the US. And as per usual, the cDN market is mouse nuts compared to the Us. Maybe the size of California. Canopy is focussed southbound and will pick up cDN mkt share as a small lift whenever the deal w wana happens. We are overthinking it other than without wana, Indiva is worth the current price until they sign

[MacLovin]

I think you are wrong about 'Canopy can do nothing here until a permissive event in the US.'  From what I know of the deal, if it is like the last one they did, they will pay the purchase price to Wana right now and they will 'own and control' Wanna on day 1.  So, Canopy does call the shots on Wana right now.  However, it the deal does not become 'effective'

[caretired1]

Many good points although I'm not sure about your point of view on control right away Aside from that, Indiva brings no time to market versus if canopy terminates and goes their own way. Probably a 12 month advantage.  By the end of 22 Indiva should be at a 60-80 million revenue run rate on a quarterly basis if wana stays, so big enough for canopy to support a buy given they keep

[MacLovin]

Read up on the Acreage Holdings deal - same structure as what they did on Wana I believe.  They control Acreage but ownership is not 'effective' until cannabis is legal in USA.   I don't understand your math - Indiva is at a $8ish million quarterly revenue run rate currently.  Rumor has it that Indiva's market share is trending down this past quarter (still the

[caretired1]

I wasnt clear enough. They are in the 40mm per year revenue range now and will double that by year end 22 with market growth and new products. 

[MacLovin]

Understood - i get where you are coming from.  maybe it is achievable - who knows but if anyone could do it Indiva might have the best chances to.  But I just don't believe the numbers, nothing to do with Indiva or any of theirs products.  I don't believe they will be nowhere near $80MM top line: a) market growth is slowing not increasing and the market will not grow that

[Bronson123]

Turn key operation.   canopy can offer lower cost on distillate to I'm sure.  

[MacLovin]

yes - but isn't it 40,000 sq feet???  To small for Canopy. Canopy would want economies of scale with all their other opteraions and 40,0000 sq ft is to small for an extraction facility, packaging facility, processing facility or admin offices.  But turn key for sure - just concerned about the size and lack of ability for Canopy to scale to realize the benefits.   Cheaper

[CreatingApe]

I know.sooo many people who buy mainly wanna gummies here in the states. You are just spouting nonsense. No one will remember wana i 6 months?

[MacLovin]

Your circle of friends are likely not representative of the total population.  I am citing sales data  from the company Headset. If I remember the USA gummie data correctly - Kiva was # 1 with a slight lead over WYLD.  The Wana brand wasn't in the top 10 brands but was somewhere in the top 20.  Maybe your people are those ones buying Wana. Sorry - just stating the retail

[caretired1]

Remember too that wana has 2 big competitors in the US that aren't in Canada yet. Indiva is exclusive to wana until they're not. It's not a one supplier vertical, that gummy one

[MacLovin]

WYLD are here and will be on shelves shortly - much much much bigger and popular then Wana south of the border.  No reason to doubt they will do the same up here.

[caretired1]

Thanks for the WYLD perspective