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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

Nevada Copper Corp is a Canada-based mining company. The Company is engaged in the development, operation, and exploration of its copper project (the Project) at its Pumpkin Hollow Property (the Property) in Western Nevada, United States of America. Its two fully permitted projects include the high-grade Underground Mine and processing facility, which is undergoing a restart of operations, and... see more

GREY:NEVDQ - Post Discussion

Nevada Copper Corp > NCU at $3.85 copper
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Post by Notgnu on Jan 19, 2021 6:14pm

NCU at $3.85 copper

What happens? 
  1.  A lot more resource (ie. a lower cut off grade) becomes ecomonical but I will not add this ATM
  2. The Net Present Value (NPV) of the future open pit portion, extrapolated from the NI 43-101, which then goes up to about $1,586,800,000
  3. Add in the funds from about 500m warrants of about $110,000,000 to get $1,696,800,000
  4. Cut the NPV of the future open pit in half to be conservative and get $848,400,000
  5. Add in a the Net Present Value (NPV) of the currently operating underground mine (who's mine life then goes out to 13 years... and that is without accounting for possible resource additions from new underground drilling) and get an NPV, in my estimation, of $600,000,000 (based on a pretax cash-flow of $120,000,000 per year [which itself is based on 61,000,000 pounds X $1.99 per pound margin at $3.85 copper])
  6. Add together the underground mine NPV of $600,000,000 to the (warrant adjusted) NPV of the future open pit (at half price) and get $1,448,400,000 NPV at $3.85 copper.
  7. Divide this number by the fully diluted shares after warrants of about 2.2 billion shares and get $0.66 per share.
  8. If you use the entire NPV of the open pit then you get $1.04 per share at $3.85 copper.
Cheers, 
Notgnu
Comment by Notgnu on Jan 19, 2021 6:17pm
Link to Corporate Presentation: https://nevadacopper.com/site/assets/files/4202/2020-12-16-cp-rev-ncu.pdf
Comment by fishmillion on Jan 19, 2021 6:32pm
Unfortunately NPV , no matter how you discount it or divide it or times it are add it, isnt used for share price..... its results... cash on the dash.. mine investing is boring.... nobody wants to wait... the speculation stocks are the tech, trendy, ai, virtal reality ect.... miners need to produce... ncu hasnt made a cent and until it does it wont get much traction..... get yo 5000 tpd ...more  
Comment by Notgnu on Jan 19, 2021 8:16pm
Sure for now the market is only paying up for the underground mine at present and not even at it's forward cash flow from 5000 tpd... that is certainly true. Question is what price (if any at all as you point out) is the market is willing to pay for the future open pit... an open pit that is already permitted and quite well delineated: "OPEN PIT MINE § Fully-permitted, mineral ...more  
Comment by fishmillion on Jan 19, 2021 8:28pm
An producing open pit that size i would think would be worth 0.3 - 0.4 / sh ( fully diluted)... but now i would think it is worthless until they have a year or two under thier belt making money..... unfortunately mining stocks seem to only get interest in times of trouble/ general market weakness.. then people get bored and chase the lettuce stocks or elon around. ..
Comment by Notgnu on Jan 19, 2021 8:47pm
I guess to me personally I see that future value and am happy to buy it for almost nothing... That's what makes a market. Money rushes to and fro and sometimes you can wait to jump on a train just as the doors are about to close and other times you decide to get there 5 minutes early and leisurely load up in advance. I am in the midst of reorganizing some other assets and may just take up an ...more  
Comment by patchh on Jan 20, 2021 6:08am
it will git to a buk ! the pit has been moved bak..  it appears that nevada mines and NCU engineers hav to re-design the Stope..  if the stopes break..  its free fall all the way to the bottom... the mine in salt lake - split and dropped to the bottom; took out the haul roads 4 a couple football fields wide..  mile down..  this was last year.. global Cu++ inventories are ...more  
Comment by patchh on Jan 20, 2021 6:20am
Open Pit is seperate from Underground this OP project is subjected to permitting..  and U are correct, NOT to apply monetary value on a non-extractable comodity; 'that has not recieved a term perm from the State of Nevada. NCU has a ROD from the BLM that is passed onto the State of Nevada/Mines to regulate. if the original OP Proposal was withdrawn by state or ncu (here it sounds like ...more  
Comment by patchh on Jan 20, 2021 6:32am
the math is correct and is based on dead weight shipped & wieghted @ 2 and 4.. the mine should hit a 2 target for the feb earnings report.. NCU is a nivida Pure Play - underground to boot !  5000 @ 365x24 ain't bad.. the speculation is on a local industrial supplier..  not a rust buket in arizona or ely nevada which is a blast rok pit..  with full production is will be a ...more  
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