Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

Simply Wall st valuation for NCU

[westcoast1000]

Simply Wall St is a valuable resource IMHO.

They show that the fair value of NCU today is estimated at $10.24 per share (not accounting for a share count rollback). They provide details of financial DCF analysis to support that estimate. 

Conversely they show the fair value of CMMC, as one example, as 1.14 per share compared to its current price of 3.88.

Along these lines, INV and LUND are shown as substantially undervalued although not as dramatically as NCU.

[mckayk3]

so they value NCU as an 18.4 billion dollar company?

[westcoast1000]

Yes, I think that would be correct , as their estimated fair value based on future cash flows and costs. It is not a price target.  It is based on the analysis filed with SEDAR. Basically they do a DCF at some hurdle rate based on the returns on low risk bonds, and do a present value of the flow of revenues and costs. It assumes everything works smoothly as planned, based on former economic

[Notgnu]

I have seen their analysis posted a few times but have never been able to find out what copper price assumptions were being used. Do you know? N

[westcoast1000]

Not, I don't know. I do know the fair value has not really moved in the last month, so clearly they are NOT reflecting rapid increases in copper prices that have occurred in recent months. Here are there cash flow estimates for 10 years.  TSX:NCU DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast   Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present

[GGreen]

NCU $10.24 & CMMC $1.14....Makes perfect sense IF you ignore all financial metrics but based on some recent (retail investor) decisions re: valuations --> Stock price statements like that no longer surprise me. I just give my head a shake! It makes absolutely no sense that NCU is where it is today unless there are some back office "games" going on which wouldn't surprise me..

[patchh]

when was that report drafted ?

[westcoast1000]

"when was that report drafted ?" I don't know. It has been roughly the same report for at least two-three months. Sometimes the NPV changes if they change one of the discount rates. The info that serves as the basis for the analysis is probably from the company prelim econ assessment. They show negative cash flows for the next couple of years to build the open pit

[patchh]

link ?  pls

[westcoast1000]

The link. You might have to enroll in Simply Wall St as a visitor. https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/materials/tsx-ncu/nevada-copper-shares

[Canoutchie]

Let's assume that NCU garners just a tenth of that valuation. It would imply a stockprice of just over $1.00, giving one a 500% return. If copper prices stick at over $4 per pound, and push towards $5, then NCU will be quite a leveraged play, even with its large number of outstanding shares. GLTA

[patchh]

the NCU stork is heavily diluted...  NCU is in no position to finance the OPitt Construction/Ramp Up to 70,000 tpd.. the leverage is the new constructed mine or underground..  there is a little bluster abut 2.5% copper -but- it's Cu++) not in the buket yet..  it will B there in the fiscal end of year and will impact current stok price w/o the Opitt (not much chance of