Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

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[Notgnu]

Still need to get to the other side of 12 cents ($1.20) to really start the climb. Maybe a production update along with news of the fans being on time still will do it.

N

[Marketwatch6789]

Hi Notgu do you know if the NAV of $3 includes build out of the open pit? It is my understanding that it does and requires an additional 672M to build. What are you thoughts on how they are going to finance this?  Additionally do you know the allocation of the NAV between open pit and the mine?  Short term I am seeing the step at $1.60-$1.65 area. However, Scotiabank just reduced

[Notgnu]

Marketwatch... Thanks for your question. For now I will give you a rough calculation. At $4.50 copper the (7.5% discount rate) NAV is about $3,400,000,000 (yes, 3.4 billion dollars) if you include a decent portion of the construction capital already spent building the underground mine. Currently there are about 185 million new shares. Pala will have warrants for an additional 15 million

[Notgnu]

PS... as to Scotia "not seeing a clear path to building out the open pit" all I can say is pfffft.... idiots. If the open pit is seen as long term sustainable re grade, cost and long term copper prices it will be built either by joint venture or a combination of underground cash-flow, debt finance and equity issued at (by then) much higher prices. N

[patchh]

Scotia or SB is not part of the Big 7 RBC family...  RBC Writes Bonds ;  The Main Co Underwiters of the RBC Bonds are Royal - TD - RBC - CIBC - National - BMO & Dseardgins,, most of the RY Bonds are not for sale in the US or UK and are sold dealer to dealer.  a fex are resold in the Value and TSX... OTW - i think SB is sitting on a tons of shorts > 125... as 2 da 125

[westcoast1000]

Dear Not, Thanks for this lucid, well researched, insightful, and encouraging post, answering an important question in transparent terms. And all in complete sentences. Thank heavens for the Canadian educational system and strong civic norms that value reasoning.  WC

[Beezer441]

Hi Notgnu I appreciate the clarity here. I was looking back at some earlier posts by you ( pre-consolidation, June 29) and some of of your estimates of share value based on FCF. I believe at $4.50 copper you were suggesting the share value for the UG mine alone at .51 USD($5.10 post consolidation) at a very conservative 5 times FCF. How do you compare the validity of the methodology of the earlier

[westcoast1000]

Repositng a note from swale on the CMMC board which might help understand the ICSG estimates.   International Copper Study Group Vice Chair Vice Chairperson Mr Li Yusheng (China) How’s that for a guarantee of complete neutrality

[Notgnu]

Beezer that is a very good question and I am a bit too sleepy to reconcile it now but I will ponder it. My calculations are, as you have probably noticed, more of estimates (some top down approaches and some bottom up approaches.) My background is more in estimating (validating a suposition by using various sanity and double checks.) It does not make my numbers exactly correct but I put them out

[westcoast1000]

Beezer, Since Notgnu is going off to salvage copper, maybe I can hazard a response. The NPV is just what the name says: the present value of net future costs and revenues, calculated at some selected discount rate that represents the opportunity cost of the capital, or what could be made by investing in some generic alternative. The web site Simply Wall St uses this approach to estimate the

[Beezer441]

Thanks for the response WestCoast. Notgnu now in the copper salvage business as he's run out of paper routes to pay for his shares? What would the range of multiplier be for a comparably sized producers ( for example say a Copper Mountain, twice as large as the estimated 65,000,000 lb/yr for NCU UG mine)? Is the multiplier analysis valid for a company in the start-up phase?

[westcoast1000]

CMMC, which I own, has a very low P/E multiple at present of about 7.5. Note that earnings can be wildly different than FCF. EBITDA is also different than net earnings for tax purposes. CMMC has been out of favor for years, due to debt, which is well handled in my view. Interest in it is only rising now because of their excellent prospects for mine expansion, processing expansion and opening one

[Beezer441]

Me, I'm just a humble engineeer trying to get a better picture of things. As it happens I own CMMC (Capstone as well) . The forward P/E for  both companies is about the same, around 8.5. So just for the heck of it I just looked at CMMC and CS 2nd quarter results and applied the same logic Notgnu used in his earlier post. Using the (Cu sale price - AISC) * production  to

[bogfit]

Dear Humble engineer, Nevada Copper isn't a new company, just unlucky. b.

[Beezer441]

I should have said not having a long history of actually producing.

[bogfit]

Yeah, I agree.  There is considerable difference between a producer and a start-up, but IMO PH hasn't reached production yet, we are still at more of the first pour stage.   There are plenty who find solace in numbers and banty them about to prove this or that, or more often to convince themselves of their impending success.  Unfortunately, most miss the big picture while honing

[Fishbillion]

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[lumpy13]

Fish:  I'm not sure where you came up with 250 tpd as the most recent update noted: Higher Copper Production: Copper in concentrate produced during September increased by 265% compared to August driven by higher stope production. Approximately 30,386 tons of ore were processed yielding 682 tons of concentrate at an average grade of 22%, resulting in approximately 150 tons of

[Fishbillion]

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[Fishbillion]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Beezer441]

Clearly they are in start up phase. So you are assuming that they don't get above 60% of name plate hoisting capacity for the UG mine for the foreseeable future? I didn't think you included 1 time items in a FCF analysis, just operating costs plus capital exp to keep things going.  So a 1.10 post consolidation share price is your estimate?

[Fishbillion]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy