Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

SWS fair value estimate for NCU

[westcoast1000]

I subscribe to Simply Wall St but have not looked at the NCU discussion there for some time.

They have had a wildly varying estimate of the "Fair Value" of NCU over the last few years.

The current analysis they do shows an estimate of fair value for the share price of 8.28 US based on a 10 year discounted cash flow analysis. This excludes anything beyond 10 years

They show their data and all assumptions via a button next to this estimate.

The data are based on cash flow estimates based on one publically available analyst estimate of future cash flows. The annual cash flows are shown below (all mushed together unfortunately):

202336.02Analyst x132.182024118.06Analyst x194.232025199.46Est @ 68.94%142.222026296.73Est @ 48.77%189.022027399.53Est @ 34.64%227.372028498.44Est @ 24.76%253.422029587.35Est @ 17.84%266.792030663.66Est @ 12.99%269.312031727.39Est @ 9.60%263.72032779.97Est @ 7.23%252.62Present value of next 10 years cash flows$1,990.86

I presume this includes the OP mine starting up about 2027. How the OP is financed is not discussed nor future dilution in the number of shares. 

Take this FWIW. I make no claims about its merits. But I find it appealing. 

[mckayk3]

Yeah that valuation is pretty wild to say the least.  I remember years ago the valuation of the company being 1B at $2.5 cu. Theres been no real change in value other than the delays to UG since then.  The share structure has been diluted mind you.  So if we take $4.2 cu then the company has a value around 1.68B over 772M shares is a rough $2.32 per share.  Thats my yard stick

[nofluff]

That would b a fair price 2day mac.  As 4 value, in the last couple years, copper price has almost doubled. They r looking to about tripple the resource on op. They have staked a bunch more land. They discovered another giant porphory. They discovered mineral hill. They discovered the rich ug tedyboy system. They have probably at least doubled ph existing resource. They built a mill at half

[westcoast1000]

Let's hope that all works, NF. After all the things that have not gone according to plan, maybe in 2023 with Wood engineering, lots of capital and Buffington running the company, we might actually go according to the plans. 

[nofluff]

Hey wc. If I ever trusted a plan, I would b completely broke two day. However, today is a bit diff. The world wants copper. I think, there might b a scammy, to steal, assets at a penny on the buck. Not getting mine at these prices. They have to b screaming 4 my assets. nf

[westcoast1000]

Thanks for the sensible reply Mckay. Yes, the ideal scenario is that they get into strong sustained production by the end of the year, and copper gets well over $5 US. In that case, we can finance the OP maybe with more help from kfw.