Post by
deepoil0808 on Oct 06, 2024 11:23pm
Non-binding offer made by Rio / Might go after NILI....
RIO made a non-binding buyout offer for ALTM. Analysts are saying that ALTM should be valued up to $ 8 billion which would make an acquistion very expensive for RIO given that they have $ 9 billion in the bank.
I do not believe that they want to deplete their bank account to nil, hence NON BINDING BUYOUT OFFER. This means that even if ALTM accepts, RIO can walk away as it is non-binding.
So it looks like a little misdirection if you ask me.
The acquisition of ALTM would have vaulted RIO to #3 spot of lithium producers around the world.
This is the list as it stands now by market cap:
ALB $ 14.6 billion
SQM 13.4 billion
Malry 9.9 billion
Gnenf 8.7 billion
Pilbf 7.5 billion
Altm 4.8 billion (Rio trying to buy them out)
You can rest assured that if RIO is successful and becomes #3 then the others like ALB, SQM, MALRY amd PILBF are going to make a move too on other companies in order to stay ahead. No one wants a competitor to leap ahead of them. This is excellent news for NILI which is a buyout target.
The fact that RIO has submitted only a non-binding buyout offer means that they do not want to be committed to Altm. Perhaps they made an offer to test the waters.
So if they are not really serious with Altm, what is drawing their attention? Where is the misdirection?
I think that they may be focused on NILI, which has the most lithium and highest grade on the planet. We saw that there was panic on Evolution Mining so someone is breathening down their throats.
Also an acquistion of NILI for $ 1.5 billion would be a heck of alot cheaper than $ 8 billion on Altm. It would leave them with $ 7.5 billion in cash, which is enough to move the project forward and collect 100% of the proceeds.
Then again, Tesla may step up and start a bidding war. So too Evolution Mining.
It is nice to be in the drivers. No wonder Graham said he is 100% CONFIDENT of a deal and why he leaked that everyone you can think of is visiting their property.
It would explain why PEA took a backseat to this activity.
Good Luck,