Nemaska Lithium Inc NMKEF

Drivers seat now

[Charlene]

We have 8 serious offers.   We rejected 5 offers that were probably 'firesale offers' (sorry Calgary).   This is a 3billion+ company in full operation, which requires $1billion in addtional investment.  So, there is $2 billion sitting on the table with NMX, which is why there were more than 20 parties interested, 13 LOIs, with qualified LOIs remaining.  The question is who will want this more and how high the are willing to pay for an acquistion. 

Suppose credit claims come to $200m.   Then if the acquirer pays: 
- $400m, then shareholders get $0.23/share 
- $600m, then shareholders get $0.47/share 
- $800m, then shareholders get $0.71/share 

With this healthy competition, why would someone pay $600m or $800m to get $2billion.  Good luck all.

[TicTacTo]

3 billions is pre-tax base case scenario, after tax base case is 2.3B (8% discount rate) and 1.7B at 10% discount rate. That's hypothetical value after completion of project, derisking of electrochemical plant ... not the sale price for restructuration. Pallinghurst offer of 3.2 Bds shares at 25 cents correspond to C$800 millions.

[Charlene]

NPV valuations have drawbacks.  There are other ways on valuation, for example applying P/E multiples of peers is more common.  Peers are currently trading at a multiple of 20-30x Earnings.  At current prices, NMX at production should generate $300m/yrs.  Should be around $200m in earnings each year.  That translates to a valuation of $4-6billion.  If you are a peer

[TicTacTo]

Wait and see reply in a few weeks, as seem reasonable hope of refinancing and return to TSX option, we will maybe end extremely lucky to not be wipe out ... not usual outcome. If end well, never forget for next investment as rarely get such luck another time. Feel Livent is the closest to NMX as a pure lithium player, based on it if we stay in the loop and dilution remains reasonnable, future

[mick1888]

Excellent TtT.... ;-) Couldn't agree more, wish we could 'Cherry Pick' the future.... ;-) GLTA longs

[mick1888]

NMX low cost Hydroxide producer, Livent lowest cost Carbonate producer = partnership made in heaven... ;-)

[mick1888]

Charlene, good point. As I've said before, many of our competitors have put a hold on their current expansion / investment plans. What about share swaps as an option in any potential merger? The timing would be about right to benefit NMX where the peers share price is not too high before potential rapid climbs in the next few years.... ;-) As the mine is well advanced in construction, Livent

[Calgary_AB]

why are you saying "sorry Calgary"? Probably because you are assuming I want NMX holders to lose, just like you are assuming everything else...business doesn't work that way. remember Charlene, It's not "I want" people to lose money, it's "I see" people losing money....too many roze glasses like yourself that see everything green. Try taking those glasses