Post by
Finalsay on May 20, 2020 12:44pm
Dividend
Looking to hear from some folks regarding there opinions on Noranda. I only started following Noranda post 2019 Q3 earnings release and still very much honing my financial analysis skill set. I guess I'm jsutr trying to wrap my head around why Noranda is trading around the $1.10-$1.50 range when its BVPS is closer to $5. This is some of what I've gathered from reading posts here and through my own analysis: When it comes to overall governance it seems most people's opinions are quite negative. The vibe I get is that many people believe the board members are disinterested, whether due to lack of accountability, or lack of shared interest/incentives (low boardmember share ownership levels). The consensus on the 25% Glencore ownership seems to be a net negative. It seems Glencore itself doesn't have the most pristine reputation and I find the Noranda-Glencore relationship particularly hard to analyze. Curious if anyone can confirm with me whether Glencore consolidates Noranda on its financial statements, as I feel like they must considering literally everything runs through Glencore. Though I cannot list them exactly due to my unfamiliarity with the business line and arrangements, I imagine there must be some conflicts of interest between Noranda and Glencore that arise due to this dependece, and especially considering the secretive nature of their agreements. Actually, if someone could explain to me the logic of the secrecy in the contracts between Glencore and Noranda I would be greatful. I am admitedly unknowledgeable when it comes to these types of inter-company contracts and I am genuinely curious how not disclosing these agreements helps them conduct their business more efficiently. Are the benefits to the secrecy one-sided or do they benefit both parties? I understand also that Noranda has transitioned away from fixed to variable contracts, which has resulted in more variable revenue, profit, costs, etc. I'm assuming this decrease in predictability will make monthly dividends harder to reinstate, and harder to sustain on a regular basis when compared to previous points in its history. I've heard comments repeatedly about past writeoffs and some people's opinions that the carrying value of the plant is unreasonably low. If that is the case, can anyone explain to me the logic/reasoning behind the reporting these low values?
Comment by
Finalsay on May 20, 2020 1:37pm
As at March 30, 2020, the Operating Trust's Trustees and the Manager's executive officers as a group beneficially owned, directly or indirectly, or exercised control or direction over 111,500 Priority Units such number representing less than 1% of the issued Priority Units of the Fund. - Is this abnormal or is the low ownership level due more to the nature of the corporate structure?
Comment by
Finalsay on May 26, 2020 4:28pm
Rolling EPS of 0.60 on a stock trading at $1.09. What am I missing here?
Comment by
ZincDink1 on May 26, 2020 6:46pm
If you are like me, you are missing money. I suspect that there has been a drop in TC as there is no other reason why the drop. I am going to write management and propose we close the business and liquidate the company as there is no other way shareholders can receive value/
Comment by
wizthewiz on May 28, 2020 3:12pm
I have no insight other than to say I think your general analysis here is accurate, if not spot on.